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If the pundits proved to be fine, the US labor market should have been broken.
It was not considered to be a Federal Reserve’s historical and aggressive campaign.
Instead, the job market – like the wider US economy – has been quite strong and has been working in one of the longest period of employment expansion in history.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January job report on Friday morning at 8:30 am. And, on a large scale, economists are expected to slow down the principles of premature jobs, but they remain quite solid (though, is expected to be more analyzed after that. And the data related to the analysis will be a considerable extent).
According to the Fact Set, the consensus is estimating around a net increase of 170,000 jobs for the past month. The unemployment rate is expected to be stable at 4.1 %.
However, it seems that the solid and stable labor market is taking some obstacles to the road, along with another junction.
“This is a phrase, but I think the idea of being at the confluence of the labor market is a suitable imitation,” said Oliver Allen, senior US economist, Panthan Macro Economics. “It looks like we are honestly in the mood of ‘waiting and watching’.”
Flexible job market rental pullbacks (keeping people at a maximum interest rate), and now is competing with a cadre of policy operations from the White House.
One way is a “soft landing” situation where the Federal Reserve achieves prices without tanking the economy. He said that it potentially the economy with the economy, inflation, continues to ease, and somewhere else there is no problem.
Allen said it would allow the feed to provide a lot of stimulation to the economy (reducing interest rates) and would advance the labor market in a positive direction.
As it stands now, the US labor market continues to walk around: The latest labor turnover data released this week shows that job services weakened and employer – especially small businesses – Draws back on job posting.
The launch of the job for December and the Labor turnover survey revealed that the number of jobs available in December was estimated at an estimated 7.6 million, which was 8.16 million before.
The slowdown in employment is mostly from hiring re -employment. Holidays remain at a lower level.
According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, new data released on Thursday shows that the announcement of a job deduction in January was the lowest after 2022. In the latest report of the Challenger, 49,795 announced the job cuts last month, which is 28 % higher than December, but 40 % less than January 2024.
According to the new department labor data released on Thursday, preliminary unemployment claims, which are a proxy for the holiday, reached 219,000 claims last week, which are close to pre -birth levels.
“January was relatively calm in terms of job deduction announcements,” Andrew Challenger, the senior vice president of the firm, wrote in a statement. “However, we have already seen big announcements in the early days of February, so it seems unlikely to be calm.”
Nevertheless, the current pattern of weak rent and compulsive ceilings leaves a slight room for the pentheries.
Therefore, if the economy or the labor market has been affected, it is not too buffer to be absorbed by less job. Allen of Panthon said that if the pressure is significantly severe, it will have to come through the holidays.
Allen said the steps by the new administration – whether trade, immigration or federal job reduction to the extent that is now included in the largest external wild cards.
Alan said, “It leaves us in a situation where things can necessarily turn very fast, because you have already had to hire companies as if they were in recession – even if they were in the market. Don’t be saved. ” “It is a dynamic that feeds on itself very fast. It is a dynamic where you start to get a more important slowdown.
Julia Polk, chief economist at the employment site Zipracer, said that for now, there are some strong winds behind the economy and labor market.
These include the benefits of wages for workers. Strong income for business; Enough strong stock market; And, for some small businesses, “the effect of Trump”, he said.
“I am not sure what kind of policy or the Bidin administration is bothering the businesses so much, or which taxes or labor provisions are reducing them so much on the economy and development,” he said. “But clearly, each survey shows that business is quite hopeful about 2025, and a large number of companies expect an extension of the head count in the next six months.”
He said, but there is also a “tremendous uncertainty”.
“What has this uncertainty changed from [Federal Reserve Chair] What will Jerome Paul do [President] Donald Trump will do, “he said.
Further restrictions on immigration and exiles, for example, can promote some additional hardship in the labor market, where workers’ demand exceeds the supply supply. He said that this could result in additional automation or even less production.
When facing labor shortages is often the substitute for labor, [companies] Make more things automatic, “said Polk.” The other thing that may be, is that they reduce production. The cost of labor increases largely to how much they can produce or help them with more working operations to less labor operations.
Trump, Elon Kasturi, through the performance of the government, is in the process of guting some federal agencies. It remains to be seen how deep the job deduction will be, but those who offer “purchases” have been “encouraged” to find jobs in the private sector.
Given the current state of getting the current services, Polak said, these possibilities have been tightened, Polyk said if the separation package really passes in September, it is enough time for people to find work. Should be provided.
Economists have noted that January job reports are the most difficult to predict, as it is usually a big month for job losses: businessmen often after holidays and other firms after seasonal workers Leave the crowd.
In addition, each New Year brings out the statistics to help researchers and economists look better through seasonal noise, such as moving holidays, the number of weekends in the month and the sector -related rise and the sector. Bottom times (Think: Summer travel and ice cream sales, ski activity and retail fare).
Climate adjustments factors help smooth data and better understand basic trends.
For example, without climate adjustment, it seems that the US economy is suffering from a deep economic misery with the loss of millions of jobs every January.
These seasonal adjustments are based on years of statistics and trends. However, the economy -powered pandemic disease has thrown a huge wrench in the decades of operations and has even created its samples.
“What we have seen in the last two years is that in January we have tried to surprise something. Allen said in an interview, and in the last two years, this surprise has been quite big.
He said that it could be partially attributed to volatility services in the aftermath of pandemic disease. But another important factor is that in the last three years, the snow cover has been limited and relatively high temperatures have been limited and relatively high temperatures.
“However, this month looks a bit different,” he added.
Earlier this week, Allen and fellow Panthon economist Samuel Tambus wrote earlier this week in an investor note that last month, in most parts of the United States to get a January job from a cold and frozen temperature wave. Can lose weight. Referring to the weather, they only expect an increase in 125,000 jobs.
Reference to the 12th of job reports is the average temperature average of 37.8 degrees Fahrenheit during the week – which is the lowest since 2015.
He wrote, “In the last eight years, the temperature has been higher than normal when the salaries have increased.” On the contrary, the cold snaps in 2009, 2015 and 2016 are all agreeable with the increase in the payroll. ”
Economists say recent forest fires in Los Angeles could also affect January job numbers.
January job reports will also take a clear look at the recent job benefits (via Via) Revision on the last benchmark) As well as US labor market size and growth (via Via) Adding new population estimates From the Census Bureau).
But the first little background: Friday’s job reports will change mostly in the coming months (and years). This is just the nature of data collecting, statistics and research: a wish – and, in many cases, is needed – to find out how the labor market and the wider economy are currently operating.
Every year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics fully reviews the survey -based employment estimates from the monthly job reports and with the entire employment count of the Job and Wages (QCE) program quarterly census. Estimates make peace.
This annual process, called benchmarking, provides close job count, as BLS can fix the survey for samples and modeling errors and in these estimates, unemployment insurance tax records estimates. The revision process is twice as: Preliminary estimates are released in mid -AugustAnd the final revision was released in February with a January job report.
In August 2024, the initial benchmark for the 12 -month period ended in March 2024 had 818,000 jobs. It is about 0.5 % of the 161 million people working in the United States.
With this annual release, then -candidate Donald Trump was forced to declare job data “lies”. Although the 818,000 downward revision, if it stands, will be the largest since 2009, in recent years it has had other major amendments, including one. 514,000 jobs under review For the year ended in March 2019 (during Trump’s first presidency).
“Review is no bug, they are a feature,” Erica Groosin, a former commissioner Bureau of Labor statistics, told CNN last month.
On Friday, the revision is expected that the revision will be limited to about 670 670,000 jobs, according to Panthon economists, with the above review in QCEW data as well as business holes and business holes. Adjustments will also be noted in the BLS model related to closures.
The reason for the bottom review is probably attributed to the recent increase in immigration.
Economists wrote, “Periods will be amended because many businesses are not ready to reveal on UI farms that they employ unauthorized immigrants.” The survey “only asks businesses how many workers they employ, while the UI form asks them to provide each employee’s name and their social security number.”
