Since December, astronomers have been carefully studying whether 130 and 300 feet of 300 feet and 300 feet. Affect the land In less than eight years. And the difficulties, overall, appear to grow.
On January 29, December 22, 2032, the chances of the attack on our planet (named 2024 YR4) were 1.3 percent. Then they woke up 1.7 % On 1st February, before falling the next day 1.4 %.
Then on Thursday, they were jumped 2.3 % fromBefore slightly slightly slightly slippery. This is a one-45 chance of effect (but also a Miss Miss 44-in-45 chance).
Many people, it feels annoying. But what looks horrible, in fact, usually when discovered closely is normal Teenagrara.
“It is true that the possibilities of effect have doubled recently, but that does not mean that it will continue to do so.” David FarnociaA navigation engineer at the NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, a navigation engineer who is under the supervision of these orbit calculation programs. “The important thing is that the effect is very low, and it is likely that we keep witnessing 2024 YR4.”
Two major organizations are involved in calculating the difficulties of these effects. He works to NASA Center Dr. Fernateia, and nearly the Earth Object Coordination Center in Italy, part of the European Space Agency. These groups are near the ground space cartographer, looking for parts of the cosmic map where they can mark “dragons here”-in this case, potentially effective discipline or double.
When a discovery (or double) is discovered, both centers use their automatic orbital dynamics software ((Scout And Tentry For NASA, and Sect And Agenda For the European Center) to consider the observations of the Object.
When are the many potential orbits of the future of Kishorrara Are plots outSome can affect the earth as a result. But many of these orbits will be removed from the ground, so the effect will be less likely. It is as if there is a wide spotlight in Kishodarra that is moving beyond it. The ground is initially caught in the beam, but there is a lot of space around it.
Then, there are more observations. The light of these potential orbit shrinks. The outline is gone. But the earth is still in the light and now takes more space in it. “The earth now covers a large part of uncertainty, and therefore the possibility of the effect has increased,” said Dr. Fernachia.
With the observations continue, it can be for some time. “That’s why the chances of effect increase.” Juan Louis canoAn aerospace engineer with the Object Coordination Center near the Earth. “A little, it grows.” And it explains what is happening with the difficulties of 2024 YR4.
Sometimes, as has been the case for 2024 years, difficulties may be slightly fluctuated. The reason for this is that the quality of some observations can be better or worse than others, which can rotate the anticipated orbit’s clinical slightly. “All of this is being expected,” said Dr. Farnuchia.
In general, additional observations reduce the orbit uncertainty, and the earth goes away at this pace. Humanity has to see what the same results are waiting for 2024 YR4.
Telescopes can observe 2024 YR4 by April, after which it will be far and fainted to look at another Earth Flybai in 2028. By April, it is likely that astronomers will have enough observations of Kishorrah, which will be spread over several months, knowing about it. Especially orbit, and they will eventually decide that in 2032 they will not have any effect. “Mr Keno said,” People should not be upset at the moment, “said Mr Keno.
However, 2024 YR4 is being taken seriously by NASA and ESA. “Although the effect is less likely, it is generally larger than that of the other, the Finds,” said Dr. Fernachia.
If it is to target the land, it will create a destructive force like a nuclear bomb. And the current uncertainty on its future orbit spreads to this Locations of potential impactWhich includes a mixture of uninhabited, very few populations and densely populated areas: East Pacific, Sea, North South America, Atlantic, parts of Africa, parts of Africa, Arabian Sea and South Asia.
The 2024 YR4 is unlikely to join the collision course. “But we will not choose when the next important disciple will have an impact,” said Dr. Faronochia. “We just don’t want to take a chance, and so we will be tracking 2024 YR4.”
And if it becomes a problem, it may be time for the earth to rally the anti -estate defense.
Robin is the author of George Andrews “How to Kill the Teens“A book about the science of defense of planets.
