Cnn
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President Donald Trump says his administration is taking “huge” steps, and has acknowledged that the transfer period is probably “interruption” which may result.
When asked during an interview this weekend that Fox News was broadcast on Fox News about the possibility of being one of the results, Trump told Maria Barteromo: “I hate predicting such things.”
In recent weeks, severe economic misery has increased, and stocks have begun on Trump’s comments, which has continued a tremendous sale due to concerns about the impact of revenue on US economic growth.
But is there a fear of recession? History and current economic picture can tell us about the possibility of recession:
The traditional (and official) definition of US recession “is a significant reduction in economic activity that has spread throughout the economy and has been more than a few months.”
According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private non -profit organization has a very important role, when it comes to misery: its Business Cycle Dating Committee is the official designer of peaks, trustees, expansion, contraction in business cycle.
The committee uses three standards in committing his recession: depth, depth and duration.
This is the place where it is a bit Skyy.
Although each of them needs to be fulfilled to some extent individually, extreme conditions in one of these areas can relieve weak conditions in others.
Also, it is often the case that when the Business Cycle Dating Committee formally considers it like this, the United States is already in recession.
The diagnostics have turned to other gaugees as a potential recession indicator. However, they do not always prove the truth.
The biggest rule of thumb or non-governmental recession indicators is the technical concept of back-to-back quarter contraction in real overall domestic products-a widespread move of economic activity.
“We have to be careful with this definition,” Gregory bandits, the chief economist of the EY Partinin, told CNN on Monday. “One contraction to the GDP can come from a number of sources, including, in the first quarter of this year (this year), an environment where you increase imports.”
Race GDP forecast The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is estimated that the first quarter GDP annual adjusted rate may decrease 2.4 %, which is the first quarter contraction in the United States since 2022.
Import activity has intensified and trade deficit has increased in recent months as business and consumers have already increased purchases before the Trump administration’s possible prices.
In addition, the back -to -back GDP indicator is not always correct: the United States experienced it in the first half of 2022, though the second quarter was eventually changed to a slight extension. Although these deficiencies eliminated the alarm bells, it was a year of 2022 transitions as the economy tried to recover from fast and sudden misery due to global pandemic diseases.
In the early part of this year, imbalance in trade and inventions had an outsidered impact on GDP data.
If the rule of the thumb cannot always be trusted, and the official ruling party comes late, what are the reasons for recession?
The NBER Committee has 3 DS and the DACO’s “Triple P” rule is: “A deep, wide and permanent contraction.”
He said, “This cannot be a blink of economic activity just. He said that it must be widely that it cannot be a weak region of just one sector or economy. It should be in the entire sectors and areas of the country, and it has to be sustained.
He added: “There must be some perseverance. Therefore, it cannot happen with consumer expenses or employment, or whatever economic data it receives-it can not be just a month’s accident-it has to continue for some time.
He said that during the quad -19 pandemic diseases, the rule of this rule began that it was very deep, extremely spreading, but very small.
In recent weeks, economic warning indicators have spread rapidly as the rapid changes in the Trump administration’s policy in major sectors of the economy have increased uncertainty.
Since August 2023, consumer prices have been increasing at a rapid pace, as well as in February, consumer confidence has suffered a significant loss in consumer confidence.
“We are not seeing any indication that there is a Asanan recession, but we are seeing a sign that the activity of the private sector is cooling,” said Deco. “We are watching the labor market slowly. We are watching consumers more carefully. We are watching businesses a little waiting and viewing approach, and we have many uncertainty and many negative risks to policies-especially, trade policies are being implemented.
For this purpose, there are many reasons for being cautious, Diko said.
He said, “There is no reason to be extremely concerned about any ascension recession, because we have been coming out for two very strong years of development,” he said, “he said,” An environment where revenue was strong, where production capacity was strong, where consumer costs were strong and indeed, the overall economy was strong. ”
However, as 2025 rolls, and if the overall rebellion continues with the overall uncertainty, along with trade and immigration policy, this can lead to further slowdown in economic activity that can trigger tension in the financial markets.
The largest sector to see in the coming months will be the financial health of the Americans.
“Consumer spending is the main pillar of the US economy. Therefore, if it is to start cracking, it will eliminate an important foundation for the US economy, and it can remove the recession. “Consumer costs are not right now and not about itself – on average, we are still looking at consumer costs – but high -income people are working more than their fair share in costs.”
He said, and if the group has withdrawn or its confidence is shaken, it will be a concern.
For now, it seems that Trump’s tariff policies have been confusing for business, consumers and investors. Over the past few weeks, the Trump administration has implemented rates in the United States, the three largest trade partners, Canada, China, and Mexico, fearing prices. Trump has said that Canada and Mexico -related revenues are the result of non -documentary immigration and drug trafficking policies. Last week, he said he was delaying the risks of his very harsh prices. They are now implemented on April 2.
Dico said that uncertainty and confusion around such policies do not help the overall economic image.
“What you now have is lacking the policy explanation, lack of explanation of policy intentions and lack of clear policy purposes,” said Diko. “They all come together for a special sense of anxiety by the business community, because there is no clear destination in terms of policy solutions.”
