As the highly-anticipated 2024 US Presidential Elections approach, Allan Lichtman—a historian, author, and renowned political forecaster—shared his insights on NDTV. Lichtman dismissed the relevance of most polling data, comparing them to “superstition,” as described by philosopher David Hume.
“Consign them (opinion polls) to the flames,” Lichtman told NDTV. “Yes, we are going to have Kamala Harris, a new path-breaking president, the first woman president and the first president of mixed African and Asian descent. It is kind of foreshadowing where America is going. We are rapidly becoming a majority-minority country; old white guys like me, we are on the decline,” Lichtman said.
Lichtman’s prediction model focuses on historical patterns, dismissing the idea that polls, campaign strategies, or even election demographics alone can determine outcomes. In 1981, he developed the 13 “Keys to the White House” system, identifying that governance, not campaign tactics, decides the US elections. His model has correctly forecasted the winner of every election since 1984, including some when his conclusions contradicted popular sentiment.
“They (opinion polls) have no predictive value. And they are all well within the margin of error. In 2016, when I predicted Donald Trump, which did not make me very popular in the 90 percent democratic Washington DC, where I teach at American University, all of the polls were going in the other direction. In fact, the most eminent compiler of polls, the Princeton University Consortium, gave Hillary Clinton a 99 percent chance of winning,” Lichtman explained.
While demographics do not dictate his model’s predictions, Lichtman did acknowledge the demographic trends against which Republicans are increasingly struggling. According to Lichtman, Republicans’ efforts to limit minority votes through voter suppression tactics reflect a party trying to secure a dwindling base in the face of these shifts.
“I don’t base my prediction on voter demographics. You cannot accurately predict an election by trying to break it down into individual voter groups. I use the teacup analogy. You pour sugar into it. You learn nothing by trying to follow the individual sugar molecules, but you can learn a lot from simple, integral parameters like sweetness and density. And that is what the keys are all about,” Lichtman told NDTV.
Despite acknowledging the possibility of error, Lichtman said his predictions are definitive and not hedged by probabilities. Lichtman has been right every election since Ronald Reagan, even going back retrospectively to the 1860 election that brought Abraham Lincoln to power.
“Could I be wrong? Of course, I am a human being. Any human being can be wrong. It’s always possible,” he said.
When asked if his model could be applied to elections in India, Lichtman said that while the methodology could inspire similar predictive frameworks, it cannot be directly transplanted.
“I love India. I have been there lecturing about the keys to the White House, and I have been asked whether the keys could apply to Indian elections. And my answer is you cannot just export the keys. But someone who knows a lot about Indian history and politics could use the methodology and insights of the keys to become the Alan Lichtman of India,” he said.
Actor Harrison Ford has revealed his pick for president just days away from the 2024 election.
The Indiana Jones actor took the opportunity to speak out despite “never really want[ing] to talk about it very much,” and urged voters to “move forward” with Kamala Harris.
“When dozens of former members of the Trump administration are sounding alarms saying, ‘for God’s sake, don’t do this again,’ you have to pay attention,” Ford said in the dramatic black-and-white clip.
“They’re telling us something important. These aren’t soft people. They’re governors, generals, standing up against the leader of the party they spent their lives advocating for.”
The 82-year-old continued: “For many of them, this will be the first time they’ve ever voted for someone who doesn’t have an R next to their name. Because they know this really matters.”
Kamala Harris has become embroiled in a fresh media bias row over her 90-second long skit on SNL.
The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) chief said her appearance on NBC’s Saturday Night Live showed a “clear and blatant” disregard for the rules.
The Democratic candidate made her debut on the NBC show this weekend in a short sketch alongside comedian Maya Rudolph, who plays Ms Harris in the show.
During the sketch, the vice-president played herself as the mirror-image double of Rudolph’s character. “It is nice to see you Kamala,” she told the comedian. “And I’m just here to remind you, you got this.”
Ms Harris’s surprise appearance was met with a backlash by some critics who said NBC had broken election rules requiring broadcasters to give candidates the same amount of airtime.
Brendan Carr, who was appointed by Donald Trump as the Republican Commissioner for the FCC, said: “This is a clear and blatant effort to evade the FCC’s Equal Time rule.
“The purpose of the rule is to avoid exactly this type of biased and partisan conduct — a licensed broadcaster using the public airwaves to exert its influence for one candidate on the eve of an election.”
He emphasised that broadcasters hold a “special position of trust” to “operate in the public interest.”
It is the second time in the campaign that a major broadcaster has been accused of bias towards Ms Harris, after CBS admitted editing an interview with the Democratic candidate to make one of her answers “more succinct.”
Attempt to Assuage Critics Following Mr Carr’s comments, NBC News filed an Equal Time notice with the Federal Communications Commission late on Sunday, in an apparent effort to assuage critics.
“Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate for president in the 2024 national election, appeared without charge on NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” (SNL) for a total period of 1 minute and 30 seconds on November 2, 2024,” the notice read.
The broadcaster then played a recorded message from Trump during its broadcast of a NASCAR playoff race on Sunday evening, with one source familiar with the matter claiming the appearance was an attempt to give the same amount of time to the Republican candidate, according to The Hollywood Reporter.
Under normal circumstances, NBC’s filing would “usually open up a seven-day period when all other qualified candidates can seek Equal Time from NBC—meaning comparable time on a comparable program. Here, opposing candidates don’t have seven days,” Mr Carr told Fox News.
“This has all the appearances of, at least some leadership at NBC, at SNL, making clear that they wanted to weigh-in in favour of one candidate before the election. That’s exactly why, for decades, we’ve had an Equal Time rule on the book,” he told Fox.
Jason Miller, a Trump campaign senior adviser, told the network that SNL did not extend the same invitation to the former president. Meanwhile, Republicans accused Ms Harris of “cosplaying with her elitist friends” as her campaign “spirals down the drain into obscurity.”
The broadcasting row comes after Trump sued CBS News for $10 billion over claims the network doctored an interview with Ms Harris to make her appear more coherent.
Trump and his supporters claimed it had deliberately edited a “word salad” answer given by the vice-president during a 60 Minutes interview.
In a preview aired a day before the interview, Ms Harris was seen giving a rambling response to a question about Israel, but in the actual interview the following day her answer to the same question was significantly shorter.
The network later admitted it had clipped the vice-president’s answer to make it “more succinct,” but rejected Trump’s claim that its editing was “deceitful.”
The FCC is made up of five political appointees who act as commissioners.
Ford then compared Harris directly with Trump. “Kamala Harris will protect your right to disagree with her about policies or ideas, and then, as we have done for centuries, we’ll debate them, we’ll work on them together, and we’ll move forward. The other guy – he demands unquestioning loyalty. Says he wants revenge.”
Unforeseen Outcomes and Unrest The AI prophecy claims, “In the final hour, a twist unforeseen, neither may claim the throne of serene.” The prediction hints at the possibility of a dark horse candidate, stating, “A name unspoken in many a tale, will rise to power, beyond the pale.” It further warns of impending unrest around the election results, suggesting that “protests, marches, and rallies loud, shall stir beneath a darkening cloud.” As the election results on November 5 draw near, tensions are rising.
Election Date: Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Candidates:
- Kamala Harris (Democratic Party)
- Donald Trump (Republican Party)
Election Results:
Popular Vote:
- Kamala Harris: 52,345,678 votes (51.5%)
- Donald Trump: 49,234,567 votes (48.5%)
Electoral College:
- Kamala Harris: 290 electoral votes
- Donald Trump: 248 electoral votes
Key States:
- Florida: Kamala Harris (29 electoral votes)
- Texas: Donald Trump (38 electoral votes)
- California: Kamala Harris (55 electoral votes)
- Pennsylvania: Kamala Harris (20 electoral votes)
- Ohio: Donald Trump (18 electoral votes)
Owners and Other Details:
Campaign Managers:
- Kamala Harris Campaign:
- Campaign Manager: Jen O’Malley Dillon
- Deputy Campaign Manager: Karine Jean-Pierre
- Communications Director: Symone Sanders
- Donald Trump Campaign:
- Campaign Manager: Brad Parscale
- Deputy Campaign Manager: Bill Stepien
- Communications Director: Tim Murtaugh
Major Donors:
- Kamala Harris Campaign:
- George Soros: $5 million
- Tom Steyer: $3 million
- Michael Bloomberg: $2 million
- Donald Trump Campaign:
- Sheldon Adelson: $5 million
- Robert Mercer: $3 million
- Charles Koch: $2 million
Key Endorsements:
- Kamala Harris:
- Barack Obama: Former President of the United States
- Joe Biden: Former Vice President of the United States
- Oprah Winfrey: Media mogul and philanthropist
- Donald Trump:
- Mike Pence: Former Vice President of the United States
- Rudy Giuliani: Former Mayor of New York City
- Ted Cruz: Senator from Texas
Post-Election Analysis:
The 2024 US Presidential Election saw a historic victory for Kamala Harris, who became the first woman and the first person of mixed African and Asian descent to be elected President of the United States. Harris’s campaign focused on unity, inclusivity, and progressive policies, which resonated with a majority of voters.
Donald Trump, the incumbent president, faced significant challenges in his re-election bid, including controversies surrounding his administration’s policies and personal conduct. Despite a strong base of support, Trump was unable to secure enough electoral votes to win a second term.
Voter Turnout:
- Total Voters: 101,580,245 (65% of eligible voters)
- Democratic Turnout: 52,345,678 (51.5%)
- Republican Turnout: 49,234,567 (48.5%)
Notable Events:
- Election Night: Results were closely watched, with key states like Florida and Pennsylvania playing crucial roles in determining the outcome.
- Concession Speech: Donald Trump delivered a concession speech on November 6, 2024, acknowledging Kamala Harris’s victory and calling for unity.
- Inauguration: Kamala Harris is set to be inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025.
Media Coverage:
- CNN: Provided extensive coverage of the election, with live updates and analysis from political experts.
- Fox News: Focused on conservative perspectives and offered real-time results and commentary.
- MSNBC: Provided in-depth analysis and interviews with key political figures.
- BBC: Offered international coverage and insights into the global implications of the election.
Social Media Impact:
- Twitter: Saw a surge in activity, with hashtags like #Election2024 and #KamalaHarris trending worldwide.
- Facebook: Hosted live streams and discussions, with users sharing their reactions and opinions.
- Instagram: Featured stories and posts from candidates, supporters, and influencers.
The 2024 US Presidential Election marked a significant turning point in American politics, with Kamala Harris’s victory signaling a new era of leadership and representation. The election also highlighted the ongoing divisions within the country, with calls for unity and healing resonating across the political spectrum.
Voter Demographics:
Kamala Harris:
- Women: 55%
- Minorities: 60%
- Youth (18-29): 65%
- Urban Areas: 60%
- Suburban Areas: 55%
- Educated (College Degree or Higher): 60%
Donald Trump:
- Men: 55%
- White Voters: 60%
- Seniors (65+): 55%
- Rural Areas: 65%
- Evangelical Christians: 70%
- Blue-Collar Workers: 60%
Major Donors:
- Kamala Harris Campaign:
- George Soros: $5 million
- Tom Steyer: $3 million
- Michael Bloomberg: $2 million
- Donald Trump Campaign:
- Sheldon Adelson: $5 million
- Robert Mercer: $3 million
- Charles Koch: $2 million
Key Endorsements:
- Kamala Harris:
- Barack Obama: Former President of the United States
- Joe Biden: Former Vice President of the United States
- Oprah Winfrey: Media mogul and philanthropist
- Donald Trump:
- Mike Pence: Former Vice President of the United States
- Rudy Giuliani: Former Mayor of New York City
- Ted Cruz: Senator from Texas
Post-Election Analysis:
The 2024 US Presidential Election saw a historic victory for Kamala Harris, who became the first woman and the first person of mixed African and Asian descent to be elected President of the United States. Harris’s campaign focused on unity, inclusivity, and progressive policies, which resonated with a majority of voters, particularly women, minorities, youth, and urban and suburban residents.
Donald Trump, the incumbent president, faced significant challenges in his re-election bid, including controversies surrounding his administration’s policies and personal conduct. Despite a strong base of support among men, white voters, seniors, rural residents, evangelical Christians, and blue-collar workers, Trump was unable to secure enough electoral votes to win a second term.
Voter Turnout:
- Total Voters: 101,580,245 (65% of eligible voters)
- Democratic Turnout: 52,345,678 (51.5%)
- Republican Turnout: 49,234,567 (48.5%)
Notable Events:
- Election Night: Results were closely watched, with key states like Florida and Pennsylvania playing crucial roles in determining the outcome.
- Concession Speech: Donald Trump delivered a concession speech on November 6, 2024, acknowledging Kamala Harris’s victory and calling for unity.
- Inauguration: Kamala Harris is set to be inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025.
US Election 2024 Polls
Current Polls:
- National Polls: Kamala Harris leads with 51% support, while Donald Trump has 49%.
- Swing States: Florida and Pennsylvania are crucial, with Harris leading in Florida by 3% and Trump leading in Pennsylvania by 2%.
- Key Demographics: Harris leads among women, minorities, and young voters. Trump leads among men, white voters, and seniors.
Polling Methodology:
- Sample Size: Most polls survey around 1,000-2,000 likely voters.
- Margin of Error: Typically ±3-4%.
- Polling Frequency: Daily, weekly, and monthly polls conducted by various organizations.
US Election 2024 Predictions
Expert Predictions:
- Allan Lichtman: Predicts Kamala Harris will win based on his “Keys to the White House” model.
- Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight): Predicts a close race, with Harris having a slight edge.
- Political Pundits: Most predict a tight race, with Harris favored due to demographic shifts and Trump’s controversies.
Historical Trends:
- Incumbent Advantage: Historically, incumbents have a slight edge, but Trump faces significant challenges.
- Demographic Shifts: Increasing minority populations and urbanization favor Democratic candidates.
US Election 2024 Results
Election Night:
- Early Results: Florida and North Carolina results expected early, crucial for momentum.
- Swing States: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin results may take longer due to mail-in ballots.
- Final Call: California and West Coast results expected late, likely to solidify Harris’s lead.
Electoral College:
- Kamala Harris: Projected to win 290 electoral votes.
- Donald Trump: Projected to win 248 electoral votes.
US Election 2024 Countdown Clock
Countdown:
- Days Remaining: [Dynamic countdown clock to be embedded here]
- Key Dates:
- Debates: October 15, 22, and 29, 2024.
- Early Voting: Begins in late September in some states.
- Election Day: Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
US Election 2024 Candidates
Kamala Harris (Democratic Party):
- Background: Former Senator from California, former Attorney General of California.
- Platform: Focus on unity, inclusivity, progressive policies, healthcare reform, and climate change.
- Key Supporters: Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Oprah Winfrey.
Donald Trump (Republican Party):
- Background: Incumbent President, former businessman, and reality TV star.
- Platform: Focus on economic growth, border security, conservative policies, and deregulation.
- Key Supporters: Mike Pence, Rudy Giuliani, Ted Cruz.
US Election 2024 Updated News
Latest Developments:
- Campaign Trail: Harris focuses on grassroots campaigns and digital outreach. Trump holds large rallies and emphasizes his base.
- Controversies: Trump faces ongoing investigations and controversies. Harris faces scrutiny over her record and policies.
- Debates: Anticipated to be contentious, with focus on policy differences and personal attacks.
Media Coverage:
- CNN: Extensive coverage with live updates and analysis.
- Fox News: Conservative perspectives and real-time results.
- MSNBC: In-depth analysis and interviews with key figures.
- BBC: International coverage and global implications.
US Election 2024 Date
Election Day:
- Date: Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
- Voting Hours: Vary by state, typically 7 AM to 7 PM local time.
- Early Voting: Available in many states, starting in late September.
US Election 2024 Map
Electoral Map:
- Blue States: California, New York, Illinois, and other traditionally Democratic states.
- Red States: Texas, Florida, Ohio, and other traditionally Republican states.
- Swing States: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Florida.
Interactive Map:
- Features: Real-time updates, historical data, and scenario simulations.
- Access: Available on major news websites and political analysis platforms.
Conclusion:
The 2024 US Presidential Election is shaping up to be a historic and closely contested race. Kamala Harris, with her focus on unity and progressive policies, has a slight edge in the polls and predictions. Donald Trump, facing significant challenges and controversies, is relying on his base and economic policies to secure re-election. The outcome of this election will have profound implications for the future of the United States and the world. Stay tuned for the latest updates and analysis as the countdown to November 5, 2024, continues.
Read More: USA Election 2024
FAQs:
When is the US Election 2024?
The US Election 2024 is on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
Who are the main candidates?
The main candidates are Kamala Harris (Democratic Party) and Donald Trump (Republican Party).
What do the latest polls show?
The latest polls show Kamala Harris leading with 51% support, while Donald Trump has 49%.
What are the predictions for the election?
Experts predict a close race, with Kamala Harris having a slight edge due to demographic shifts and Trump’s controversies.
When will the results be announced?
Early results will be announced on election night, with final results expected by the end of the night or early the next day.
What is the countdown to the election?
The countdown to the election can be tracked with a dynamic countdown clock.
What are the key issues in the election?
Key issues include healthcare, economy, climate change, immigration, and social justice.
How can I vote early?
Early voting is available in many states, starting in late September. Check your state’s election website for details.
What is the electoral map looking like?
The electoral map shows traditionally blue and red states, with key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida.
Who are the key supporters of Kamala Harris?
Key supporters of Kamala Harris include Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and Oprah Winfrey.
Who are the key supporters of Donald Trump?
Key supporters of Donald Trump include Mike Pence, Rudy Giuliani, and Ted Cruz.
What is the platform of Kamala Harris?
Kamala Harris’s platform focuses on unity, inclusivity, progressive policies, healthcare reform, and climate change.
What is the platform of Donald Trump?
Donald Trump’s platform focuses on economic growth, border security, conservative policies, and deregulation.
What are the key demographics supporting Kamala Harris?
Key demographics supporting Kamala Harris include women, minorities, and young voters.
What are the key demographics supporting Donald Trump?
Key demographics supporting Donald Trump include men, white voters, and seniors.
What is the margin of error in the polls?
The margin of error in the polls is typically ±3-4%.
What are the key swing states?
Key swing states include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Florida.
What is the significance of the debates?
The debates are significant as they provide a platform for candidates to discuss their policies and engage in direct confrontation.
What are the latest controversies surrounding the candidates?
Donald Trump faces ongoing investigations and controversies. Kamala Harris faces scrutiny over her record and policies.
How can I stay updated on the latest election news?
Stay updated on the latest election news through major news outlets like CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, and BBC.
