About three years after President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, his army is making strong progress In the battlefield. Kiev suffers from a shortage of men and weapons. And the new US president can soon stop the mass supply of Ukrainian military aid.
According to Russian and Western experts interviewing Russian and Western experts, regardless of how much privileges or threats can US President Donald Trump can, regardless of how much privileges are US President Donald Trump. Can threaten Press
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Putin said Trump was “Smart and practical,” And even broke his false claims of success in the 2020 elections. The opening of Trump was called “Smart” to Gambut Putin, and Russia had to threaten to cut prices and oil prices, which was abolished by the Kremlin.
During the campaign, Trump was proud to end the war within 24 hours, which later became six months. It has indicated that America is Talking about Ukraine from Russia Without Kiev’s input, saying that his administration had already had a “very serious” conversation.
He advised that he and Putin could soon take “important” steps to end the war, in which Russia is suffering from heavy casualties, while its economy tolerates Western sanctions, inflation and severe labor shortages.
But the economy has not collapsed, and since Putin has issued the toughest crackdown over the Soviet era, it has not faced domestic pressure to end the war.
“In the West, the idea has come from somewhere that it is important for Putin to reach an agreement and remove things. In November, Putin hosted a forum with Putin and Moscow’s Council for Foreign and Defense policies The head of Foodore Lukianov said.
Talking to Ukraine without Ukraine
Ukrainian President Wolodmeer Zelinsky says Putin wants to deal with Trump directly, eliminating Kiev. This faces the position of the Biden administration that echoed the voice of Zilnski’s “Ukraine without Ukraine”.
“We can’t let anyone decide for us,” Zlinski told APSaying that Russia wants “Ukrainian liberation and destruction of freedom”.
He advised that any such peace deal would send a dangerous signal that China, North Korea and Iran pay adventure to the authoritarian leaders.
Putin expects Trump to harm the European commitment to Ukraine. Recognizing European leaders with Trump’s lipids, he said he would soon “be sitting on the feet of his master on Sunday and shaking his tail with dessert” when the US president fast “Orders with character and perseverance.”
Trump has been proud of his contract ability, but Putin will not easily hand over what he considers to Russia’s ancestral lands in Ukraine or forcing the West to punish the West and force Kiev to neutralize his unity and security. Wastes the opportunity to hurt.
Trump may want to inherit as a peace maker, but “History will not see it if he is a person who gives it all,” said Sir Kim Dartch, the British ambassador to the United States in 2016-19 – Former NATO spokesman Owana Linjo said the agreement in favor of Moscow would send a “US weakness” message.
Helsinki’s echoes
Summit’s host Finnish President Soli Nanesti said, “Trump and Putin last met in Helsinki in 2018 when there was a” mutual respect “between them. But he added that he is “not very similar”, adding, adding that Putin is a “organized” thinker, while Trump acts like a businessman who makes “quick” decisions.
This can cause a collision because Trump wants an immediate solution to the war, while Putin is looking for a slowdown that strengthens his military status and weakens both Kiev and the political will of the West.
Zillski told the AP that Putin “does not want to talk. He will sabotage it. In fact, Putin has already raised obstacles, including legal obstacles and claimed that Zilnski’s president was the president. He has lost his justification.
Former Russian diplomat in Geneva, Boris Bondario, said former Russian diplomat Boris Bondariev in Geneva said, who left his post after the attack.
Russian experts pointed to Trump’s first term when he said Putin realized that such meetings were few.
Was the victory of a public relationship for Moscow in a Helsinki Trump supported Putin Instead of its intelligence agencies, whether Russia intervened in the 2016 elections. Another in Singapore was with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2019 when he was Unable to reach an agreement Stopping Pyongyang’s nuclear program.
Previous peace talks
The Kremlin said last year A draft peace agreementThat Russia and Ukraine spoke in Istanbul early in the conflict – but what was rejected by Kiev – could be the basis of talks.
It called for Ukraine’s neutrality, NATO refused to membership of IT, laid boundaries on Kiev’s Armed Forces, and delayed the status of four Russian -occupied territories, which Moscow later illegally affiliated. Moscow also dismissed Demand to withdraw his troopsPay the Ukraine compensation and face the international tribunal for its action.
Putin has not indicated that he will rise but said, “If you want to find a solution to negotiate and compromise, let anyone negotiate.”
“Engagement is not like negotiations,” British Ambassador to Russia, Sir Lori Bristow, described Russia’s strategy. ” And what’s your talk is ready for negotiations. “
Bondario also said that Putin only looks at the negotiations as a car “to deliver whatever he wants,” it is “amazing” that Western leaders still do not understand the Kremlin’s plans.
This means that Putin is likely to welcome any meeting with Trump, as he promotes Russia as a global power and plays well as domestic, but in return he Very little offer.
What Trump can do and can’t
Trump said Zillski should have signed a contract with Putin to avoid war, adding that if he was in office, he would not allow the conflict to start.
Richard Conolly, a Russian military and economist at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said that Trump has threatened Russia to further taxes, sanctions and oil prices, but there is no economic “surprising weapon” that war Eliminate
And the Kremlin is eliminating these risks, it is likely that the West has already approved Russia.
Trump cannot even guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO, nor can he remove all Western sanctions, easily force Europe to resume Russian energy imports or international The criminal court can obtain a warrant for Putin to recover its war crimes arrest warrants.
Talk toDavos World Economic Forum Trump said he wantsOPEC+Alliance and Saudi Arabia reduced oil prices to suppress Putin to end the war. The Kremlin said it would not work because the war is about Russian security, not the price of oil. It will also harm American oil producers.
“In the trade between Putin and domestic oil producers, I am confident of which Trump will choose,” said Alexandra Prokopinco, a colleague of Berlin’s Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
Konoli said that Trump can put pressure from presenting the US oil industry with subsidy and can raise 10 % commercial rates imposed on China in exchange for limiting economic relations with Moscow, which is “really isolated” Can leave
Former British National Security Advisor Lord Peter Rights said Europe could also identify his commitment in favor of Curry with Ki -Qi – and Trump – buy US military equipment to give Ukraine.
Lukianov suggested that Trump’s allies often look frightened and fall into their threats.
He said, “Big question,” what will happen when there is no putin?
