CNN
–
Federal economic data is one of the purest forms of infrastructure, says Erica Grushin, former commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“These figures drive our economy as much as roads and bridges,” he said.
Policymakers, businesses, organizations and other institutions rely heavily on detailed data and long-term statistical trends to make investments and decisions—measures that ultimately affect people’s livelihoods.
But that statistical infrastructure—which already has been in a precarious state — in terms of funding, response rates and public trust — is now at greater risk of collapse, Grushin and others warn.
It remains to be seen how federal statistical agencies might fare under President Donald Trump, who has criticized economic data and sought to roll back government programs. Also under DOGE, when the newly created Department of Government Efficiency aims to streamline large parts of government.
Concerns The concerns about possible cuts or changes in the data – which world leaders, regulators, economists and executives have relied on for decades – come at a time when statisticians inside and outside government are looking at key data. There has been a call for funds to better modernize the collection mechanism. and spread.
Other researchers have told CNN that their concerns have been heightened (and, in some cases, realized) about how surveys and economic data could be affected by an administration that in recent months has not only The legitimacy of economic data has been questioned, rather actively Shutting down some federal programs and websites which provide resources to disadvantaged communities.
Dying surveys and losing confidence.
Federal data is considered the “gold standard” because of its longstanding reliability, quality, comprehensiveness, transparency, and history.
It is also at a crossroads.
William Beach, who served as BLS commissioner during Trump’s first term, said that surveying people — a tried and true means of gathering information — is in trouble.
“The surveys are coming off,” Beach told CNN. “And it’s not a cold, it’s a temporary illness.”
Beach said people are tired of being surveyed, especially through the means the government relies on: in person and over the phone. Response rates have dropped. For various surveys in recent years that serve as the backbone for some of the most important economic data.
“With a lower response rate, our estimates are going to be more volatile, and the revisions to our benchmarks (which typically occur in hard data sources like tax records) are going to be larger,” Beach said.
And that volatility opens the door to criticism, he said.
“With major revisions and statistical systems right on its heels, people are taking potshots at the data,” Beach said. “It’s very unfortunate that they’re doing this, and it’s being done on the left and right. It’s not a Republican or Democrat thing. It’s just politicians looking for good targets.
One of the most prominent examples of this came in August 2024, when the BLS released its preliminary benchmark revision of employment data for the 12 months ending in March 2024. The downward revision to the initial estimate of 818,000 was higher than in the past 15 years, prompting Trump to post that the jobs data was a “lie” and that the Biden administration was “caught. In the job statistics.” Fraudulently.
The revisions take place every year — and have done so under Trump — and economists note that the major revisions (which were a small fraction of total employment) reflect the ongoing effects of the pandemic and the resulting increase in immigration. was due to
“Trust is mission critical for statistical agencies,” Groshin said. “If you build a bridge but nobody trusts it, they don’t drive over it.”
In addition to low response rates, statistical agencies are facing a long-term trend of declining funding, Groshin said.
In turn, the agency has become more efficient, he said. But it hasn’t come without trade-offs.
“It had to reduce some of the bandwidth it used for contingency, resiliency and modernization, because it needed to maintain the flow of data that customers depended on,” he said.
Census Bureau has been. Working to modernize. The Current Population Survey, one of two major surveys that compile monthly employment reports and is the source of the national unemployment rate. But it continues to decline in response rates due to issues such as privacy concerns, cell phone-only households and respondent availability.
It aims to include an online-based feedback component.
“To make a change like that, you really have to test it, and it’s a slow, precise process that maintains the continuity of that information over time,” he said. “BLS and the Census Bureau have been asking for five years to fund it, and it hasn’t been funded.”
He said some stated plans to streamline government present a “tremendous” threat to federal data, because statistical agencies are subject to discretionary funding.
“If you’re going to have a big budget deficit, almost all discretionary spending has to be eliminated, and that includes statistical agencies,” he said.
And that would have the opposite effect, he said.
“If you want government to be effective, how are you going to make it effective if you can’t measure something? If you can’t measure cause and effect; if you can’t measure economic conditions so that you “Where are the problems?” he said. The economy will be less efficient. Investors will not have good information about where to invest their money.
Still, Groshin said, he believes there is common ground in some of the proposals presented in Project 2025, a reimagined federal government published by conservatives at the Heritage Foundation ahead of Trump’s second term. has a controversial playbook for A proposal was included in the Commerce Department chapter. Strengthen some Statistical agencies
“I think so [the consolidation] idea Had some merit worked properly, it could have been great for statistical agencies. “I would not put them under a cabinet secretary. I would put them in an independent agency headed by America’s chief statistician, and I would make sure that their funding is protected.
When money is tight, there may also be opportunities to find partnerships with universities to run some surveys and programs or cut back on others, Beach said.
There are some backstops in place.
Many organizations, grassroots and otherwise, actively crawl and archive government websites — especially during administration changes.
One of these is the End of Term Web Archive Project, which has been active since 2008. The purpose of the organization is to collect and preserve information disseminated on the government and military domains at the end of the presidential term.
gave End of Web Archive Archive URLs take nominations, or as the organization calls them, “seeds” for web crawlers.
“I have checked my reports and all. [economic data] The agencies’ sites are designated,” James Jacobs, US Government Information Librarian at Stanford University and EOT contributor, wrote in an email response to CNN.
Noting that economic data is often collected based on legislative requirements, Jacobs said organizations such as Census Plan And Association of Public Data Users Actively track and advocate for government data at the congressional level.
According to one, the extent to which data can be redacted or information removed can have chilling effects for less protected communities. Report released last week Through the UCLA School of Law’s Williams Institute, which conducts research on sexual orientation and gender identity law and public policy.
Trump’s executive orders that redefine “gender” as only male and female and that undermine efforts focused on diversity, equity and inclusion could ultimately affect federal data on disadvantaged Americans, including LGBTQ+. Within the community.
“It creates a lack of understanding of what’s going on with a very vulnerable population,” said Christy Mallory, interim executive director and legal director of the Williams Institute. “To solve some of the bigger economic problems and employment problems, we need to know what’s happening to subpopulations of people. It’s hard to end unemployment without knowing what’s happening to marginalized communities. is, including trans people, who are disproportionately unemployed or underemployed.”
But the threat, he said, goes much deeper and could ultimately affect the health and well-being of Americans.
“No longer looking at the questions a survey asks about you or reading about the questions being returned has another effect that people don’t often think about: how people feel,” Mallory said. When they’re being erased,” Mallory said.
