Cheyenne, Wyo. (AP) — President Donald Trump’s promise to leave on all fossil fuels Also included is a definition of coal, a reliable but polluting energy source that has long been in decline.
Trump suggested this week that coal could help meet the growing demand for electricity from large data centers needed for manufacturing and artificial intelligence.
“Nobody can destroy coal. Not the weather, not the bomb—nothing. Trump told the World Economic Forum via video link on Thursday in Davos, Switzerland. “And we have more coal than anybody.”
Still, energy experts say any bump to coal under Trump could be temporary because natural gas is cheap and there is a sustainable market for renewable energy no matter who holds the White House. There is a pass.
“It’s been shown over the last three administrations that not even the president of the United States can reverse the coal trend,” said University of Wyoming economics professor Rob Godby. “It can lead to recovery.”
Here’s a look at coal’s outlook during Trump’s second term:
AI will need more electricity.
Efficiency gains have reduced electricity demand in the U.S. for 15 years, but that’s changing. More manufacturing, more electric vehicles, and the energy-hungry computing centers needed for artificial intelligence are poised to overwhelm the system.
Chris Seiple with analyst firm Wood Mackenzie predicts that electricity demand for data centers alone will grow 10-20 percent annually until 2030, while for batteries, solar cells and semiconductor manufacturing over the next four years. Additional gigawatts of electricity will be required.
While the tech industry is used to developing new products to meet changing demand, power utilities are not. Power plants and transmission lines often take decades to plan.
“You have to remember that the Trump administration is a four-year administration. It’s really difficult for utilities to make investment decisions in four-year windows,” Godby said.
A reprieve for some old coal plants
Trump issued executive orders this week calling for prioritizing energy development, such as lifting regulations that hinder fossil fuel development.
Can lead it Cancels President Joe Biden’s repeal of power plant pollution regulations and some policies that support renewables.
Environmentalists fret over the implications of climate change — according to the EPA, electricity generation accounts for a quarter of U.S. carbon emissions — but miners welcome the change.
Unlike solar and wind power, which are subject to sunlight and weather changes unless paired with battery storage, coal-fired power requires only 24-hour maintenance intervals. can walk Proponents say it’s good to have around-the-clock power needed for technology facilities.
But while tech firms that want off-the-grid power can invest in a “dirty cheap” coal-fired power plant, Godby said, such plants take time to catch fire. They are not very good for the kind of on-the-spot backup power that Trump was referring to in his speech at the Davos conference.
“It’s natural gas that will benefit the most from increased electricity generation,” Seiple said. “It’s very rare that we’ll see new coal plants because of how expensive they are.”
Rising demand is expected to prompt some utilities to delay plans to retire coal-fired power plants. That’s already happening with plants in Maryland, Indiana and Illinois, Seipel said.
This suggests a recovery rather than a comeback for coal in the long term.
Can Trump Tap Public Coal Reserves?
According to the Energy Information Administration, the United States has the largest coal reserves in the world, with enough to last the fuel for more than 400 years at current mining rates.
The industry relies heavily on public lands in the West, particularly in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana.
Those sales have long been politically contentious. Trump in his first term Replaced a suspension On sale of government coal Imposed by his predecessor.Although there have been some new sales due to reduced demand.
The Biden administration also tried. Ban on new sale of coal By issuing new land use plans for the Powder River Basin closing day of its administration. The ban is expected to deplete the mines’ federal coal reserves as early as 2035 — decades earlier if leasing continues.
Republicans have vowed to end those restrictions. When Sen. Jon Barroso pressed Trump’s Interior Secretary nominee Doug Bergum about the ban during his confirmation hearing last week, Bergum responded that he would “work with the Wyoming Republican” to reverse the Biden administration’s move. Absolutely” will work.
Bergum also pledged to work with Montana Republican Sen. Steve Dennis to advance pending coal mine expansion permits in the state legislature.
“We have a power shortage and we especially have a baseload shortage. We know we have the technology to deliver clean coal,” Burgum said, referring to a coal-to-gas plant in North Dakota — where He served two terms as governor — which captures and sequesters carbon dioxide that would otherwise warm the planet.
Research has shown that carbon capture is feasible and effective to restore declining production in aging oil fields. But commercial scale practicality, Constant emission of carbon dioxide Coal and other fossil fuel-fired power plants have been questioned by scientists.
Increase in US coal exports
The International Energy Agency reported last month that global coal production was expected to reach close to 10 billion tonnes (9 billion metric tons) last year.
The biggest demand comes from Asia, where countries including China continue to build new coal-fired power plants as their economies expand.
American coal companies have tried. Take advantage of this development By exporting more coal, it has been hampered by a lack of access to ports on the West Coast after exports peaked under former President Barack Obama.
To address opposition to new ports, Republicans considered but never implemented a plan during Trump’s first term. Use West Coast military bases. or other federal properties as fossil fuel export sites.
Last year’s exports were expected to top 100 million tonnes for the second year in a row, with most of the fuel going to India, China, Brazil, Japan and the Netherlands. This has brought some relief to US companies as their domestic market has shrunk.
“There is strong global demand for coal and U.S. producers are poised to respond to that demand,” National Mining Association President Rich Nolan said in an email.
According to the International Energy Agency, overall US coal production is projected to continue to decline through 2027.
“It’s hard to break out of a long-term trend,” Godby said.
___
The Associated Press’s climate and environmental coverage is funded by a number of private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find the AP. Standards To work with philanthropists, list of supporters and funded coverage areas AP.org.
