Long before the opening of this week and long before his elections, President Donald Trump promises Broker an end Russia’s war against Ukraine, while providing some indications about how it will try to perform it.
On January 22, two days after starting his new term, Trump had a lever that indicated that he would use Russia to take to the negotiating table, which an important toward any agreement And the challenging is a preliminary step: by slapping additional sanctions on Moscow, if it proves that it proves to be withdrawn. .
“If we do not ‘contract’, and soon, I have no choice but to pay for high -level taxes, taxes and sanctions on anything sold by Russia to the United States and various other partners,” – Trump wrote his social media website in a post on the truth social social.
Trump’s past praise for Putin, his criticism of his US aid to Ukraine, and his clear indifference to the immediate end of the war have raised concerns about Ukrainian supporters that he is in the name of an agreement. Kiev can sacrifice the interests, and eventually strengthen Russia.
But Trump has been talking harshly this week. The January 22 post was the latest in connection with the indicators that suggested that there is a war To ruin Russia And that Putin should look for peace before it is too late: Russia’s economy is “failing,” Trump wrote.
‘Is the enemy at our gates?’
The accent and content have made Kiev as well as Western supporters of pressure on Russia. Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Andrey Sebiha, said Trump’s remarks sent a “strong signal”.
In the meantime, Moscow quickly went out to show that the risk of new sanctions would not work. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said January 23 that the Kremlin did not see “any particular new elements here”.
Kremlin supporters TV host Vladimir Solovov was the same dismissal, but he used sharp words-tried a fundamental effort to tell the Russians that they should not worry. “Is it possible to talk to Russia like this?” He said in a Video comment Posted on the telegram. “What, are we losing the war? Is the enemy at our gates?
These comments echoed Putin Appearance This war is going well for Russia, yet Russia is facing because it gradually benefits the battlefield, and that despite high inflation, the economy is fixing and Other troubles.
However, under this garment, both counts may raise concerns, and some experts say the risk of Trump’s new sanctions will increase these problems.
Nigel Gold Davis, a senior colleague of Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, told RFE/RL, “I think it would really make the Kremlin’s confusion.”
‘Keep the marker down’
“They are putting a marker down a lot in the first possible moment,” he said, adding that Ukraine and its supporters are concerned that their core of the problem of war ends. The route is to put pressure on Ukraine and retreat. Support… and leave Ukraine weak.
At least in these recent remarks, Gold Davis said, “Trump is developing the problem of war ending, instead of force Putin to compromise, instead of force Ukraine to compromise…. It was not clear That he will do so.
In a January 23 report, Reuters cited the “five sources of situation”, saying that Putin “was rapidly worried about the deterioration of Russia’s war -timing economy.” “Of course, Russia is economically interested in negotiating the diplomatic end of the conflict,” he said, citing former deputy chairman of the Russian Central Bank.
The growing economic problems within a part of the Russian elite have played an important role in the theory that a negotiation for war is desired, “Reuters cited two of its sources, which the condition of anonymity. Talk about
Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabriels Landsburgis wrote on X, Trump’s threats put Putin in a difficult place. “ Putin is to choose — Accept that he fears new sanctions because his economy is a shame, or it proves that his imperialist ambitions will not be limited by these demands.
Some analysts are too far away More skeptical, Saying that economic problems would not be indicated to abandon Putin’s target of submission to Ukraine, even if a firefire or peace deal leaves Russia under non -governmental control over about 20 percent of Ukraine.
“We should Avoid maximum Tatiana Stanova, a senior fellow of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote on the X, “The impact of these economic concerns on Putin’s plans for Ukraine is written on X. Russian terms, for that, is a uniform conflict. It is deeply determined that without a friendly Ukraine, Russia’s long -term survival is in danger.
In addition, Trump’s serious explanation “contradicts Putin’s own punishments about the state of his economy,” which he “looks as a source of pride, especially when compared to the Western economies,” Stenova Written. A separate post. If Trump intends to use this belief [in the poor state that Russia’s economy] As he benefits to give Putin a privilege, he is obliged to fail.
Secondary restrictions and ‘shadow fleet’
Not so sharp, other experts say, argue that hard killing the Russian economy could potentially change Putin’s calculus.
As can be, Shakes pointed to the fact that Putin has not flagged its flags since Western sanctions imposed on Russia’s Ukraine in February 2022 since the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine. Another question is, after the implementation of the Biden administration, just 10 days before the inauguration of Trump, what are the possible sanctions after what US officials said. The most important restrictions Still.
Gold divisions argued that there were a large number of possible restrictions.
“The United States has this unique and terrifying weapon of secondary sanctions,” he said, citing the steps imposed on Russia, but aims to keep other countries and institutions from transactions that Moscow war. Can help fight. Washington and the West can also increase Russia’s sanctions.Shadow fleet“Often old and insured ships used to ignore restrictions and keep oil revenue flowing.
Rahil Zimba, a sanctions expert at a new US security center, said implementing the current economic fines and imposing secondary sanctions would be the most important steps of the Trump administration.
With the help of intermediates in third countries like China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, Russia has been able to reduce the impact of US sanctions and ban on technology. Zimba said those countries would be subject to secondary sanctions.
China has played a significant role in facilitating dual use technology and helping Russia through oil purchases.
“The question would be whether the Trump administration would be more willing to support Russian military supply chains more than the Biden administration or to approve Chinese banks to buy Russian oil,” he said.
“This is still an open question, how much of this statement is … vs. vs.,” he said.
