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In a new trade confrontation between China and the United States, the first return was fired on Monday as US imports implemented Beijing’s taxes at around $ 14 billion.
After US President Donald Trump imposed 10 % duties on hundreds of billions of goods that import from China every year, the revenue – which made crude oil, liquid natural gas and some machinery and some machinery and some machinery and some machinery and Some were covered with duties on machinery and vehicles.
It is hoped that the phone call between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping could avoid the increase in hostility last week, which could lead to a wider trade war. But this conversation never happened.
Now the question for both sides is what happens next. And to what extent the world’s two largest economy is ready to pressure their deep -integrated trade and trade relations.
So far, even though the early Salvo is finished, both sides are leaving the breathing room for a possible contract.
“Beijing has been stopped in response to Trump’s new prices. Andy Rothman, CEO of the consulting group, said that its effects on China are minor, and that XI wants to leave the room for dialogue with Trump.
China’s Tackle – According to China’s 2024 customs data -based CNN calculation, China’s 2024 customs data based CNN calculation, China’s 2024 customs data based on CNN calculations Accordingly, 15 % tax on certain types of coal and liquid natural gas and crude oil, agricultural machinery and some vehicles affects $ 13.86 billion – about $ 13.86 billion. .
Overall, it is less than 9 % of China’s total imports from the United States. According to customs data, China had more than $ 524 billion exports to the United States last year and imported more than 3 163 billion from the United States.
Beijing last week also announced export controls with immediate impact on some raw materials used in the defense and green tech sectors, as well as targeting some US companies.
Meanwhile, in Trump’s latest prices, more than 60 % of duties are lighter than he threatened to place on China during the election campaign. They raise existing rates to hundreds of billions of Chinese imports.
The US president has campaigned for the economic playground with China in Syria and said he was open to an agreement. Last month, he told the political and business elite assembled in Davos, Switzerland, he “always likes” XI and is waiting for “to be with China”.
Ruthman said, “Trump is in the Makeing Mode, using tariffs as a negotiating device … however, it is unclear what Trump wants from XI, and in return what he is offering to offer. Ready. ”
So far, China’s elite politics observers say XI and their officials are likely to end the Trump administration’s commitment and a limited action.
“He was preparing 60 % of revenue and full declining,” said Susheng Xiao, director of the Center for China-US Cooperation at Denver University. Nothing happened that is nearing the worst situation. ”
But on April 1, another deadline is hanging on these talks. This is the history through which Trump has ordered his officials to investigate the relations between US China’s economies, which can mobilize even more action.
Beijing officials will now be focused on handling messages sent to the Trump administration in their diplomacy and trade measures, as they try to stop a more important trade war.
It is likely that they will seek any opportunities to use personal relations between Trump and XI to persuade the US president to deepen the fines on the Chinese economy – whose economists and analysts say That will be even more shocking. American economy.
This may mean that Beijing wants to welcome the US president for face -to -face meetings in Beijing, some sources told CNN last month that Trump is interested in doing.
“(Chinese leaders) don’t want to see growing… China’s benefit is not as strong as the United States, so all those opportunities to try to relieve Trump and make Trump the enemies of other countries. You have to get. ” Said
Fine and privileges?
Even when Beijing’s attention is focused on how to avoid a deep trade war, there is no question that the country’s officials are carefully preparing for an emergency – and if Trump increases, it is imposed. Weigh potential fines and privileges.
The principal said, “Trump’s trade initiatives will force Beijing to respond, but this time with more target touch around it, when we instead of the tight for tet measures to be presented from 2018 to 2019, when The trade war broke out for the first time. ” Economist for Asia in the Economist Intelligence Unit.
At the end of the last year, the country improved its export control rules, which intensified the ability to limit raw materials and major minerals along with the so -called dual -use equipment, some of which the United States economic or It seems essential for national security. Analyst Is estimated This China controls 60 % of global production and 85 % of the processing capacity of major minerals.
Beijing will announce more control over such goods, as well as additional revenue, as well as pain over pain, as well as ways to save its own economy, which development Slowing, is suffering from permanent utility and weak demand for consumers.
China is also ready for trade veins during the first term of Trump, analysts say. Chinese firms have worked to diversify export destinations, while Beijing has launched a campaign to advance or repair its relations with other trading partners – whenever Trump with US allies and partners Trump If you produce friction with it, it spreads for Beijing.
But perhaps a fork question is, what can China accept or do in any important negotiations with the United States on a trade agreement?
At the end of the first Trump administration, Beijing never fully implemented this phase -one trade agreement at the end of the first Trump administration, while US concerns extend China’s industrial policy and economic model, analysts say.
“In view of the failure of past negotiations, the appetite of a clean deal of US-based contract that is beyond micro-level debate, like the future of Teltok does not look too strong these days,” Referring to. US banned app. “It is about to minimize any potential off ramp.”
