After calling for a cease-fire in Gaza and following it up with a decisive diplomatic push, President Donald Trump made controversial remarks about whether the war would be called a provocation.
Responding to a question after taking office, he said he did not believe the ceasefire would hold and emphasized that “this is not our war. This is their war. This position is for someone who Shocker took credit for the ceasefire after 15 months of war and said “all hell would break loose” if the hostages were not released before it was inaugurated.
At the same time, Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff announced that he would soon travel to the region to be part of “an inspection team” that will try to ensure compliance with the ceasefire.
The Trump administration’s mixed signals about the escalating war were compounded by its move to overturn US sanctions on Israeli settlers in the West Bank. The sanctions were imposed by the Biden administration last year in response to violent settlement attacks on Palestinian villagers. The executive order reversing the restrictions came at a time when settlers under Israeli military protection were attacking Palestinians and setting fire to their properties.
Israel also stepped up its assault on the West Bank with deadly raids on the Jenin refugee camp. According to UN officials, the camp, where 2,000 families had already been forcibly displaced, had been “virtually depopulated” by the ongoing raids.
A day after lifting the sanctions, Israel launched a ‘massive’ military operation in the West Bank called the Iron Wall, apparently encouraged by Washington’s move. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s new appointee for the United Nations, Elise Stefanik, told her congressional confirmation hearing that Israel “has aBiblical truth“To the occupied West Bank.
Some Middle East experts have interpreted Israel’s offensive in the West Bank as a way to derail the Gaza ceasefire, which is strongly opposed by right-wing members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet and for others a government. Serve as Failure This theory ignores the fact that the onslaught of Israeli raids and drone strikes began before the ceasefire.
Also, this is not just a diversionary maneuver but reflects a strategic goal—eventually annexing the West Bank, for which Tel Aviv may now realize it can win approval from Israel’s pro-Israel administration. . Several Trump picks for his administration, including Israel’s next ambassador Mike Huckabee, have supported Israel’s ‘claim’ to the West Bank.
The annexation of part of the West Bank by Israel would also be a deal-breaker.
If Israel annexes the West Bank, it will reject the possibility of establishing an independent Palestinian state and the possibility of ending the two-state solution, which is also called for in the UN Security Council resolutions. There is an international consensus. Support for the two-state solution remains an official US position. However, Trump has refrained from confirming it while Netanyahu has repeatedly denied it. Last week, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued a timely warning when he said in Davos that annexation would violate international law.
Meanwhile, in Gaza, where displaced Palestinians have begun to return to their destroyed homes, the full scale of the devastation is becoming apparent. More bodies were discovered under the rubble of bombed buildings. The death toll of more than 47,000 in the 15 months of the war continues to rise as bodies are found. Gaza lies in ruins with essential services in a state of collapse even as life slowly begins to return to the Strip. Humanitarian aid has increased to meet immediate needs. But this will require massive humanitarian and reconstruction efforts and resources to rebuild Gaza, as well as lasting peace.
So far, the ceasefire is holding, but formidable challenges lie ahead. The ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel envisages three phases. The first is to last six weeks during which an exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners is to take place, which is ongoing. Israeli forces have to withdraw humanitarian aid to population centers and Gaza.
Sixteen days into the first phase of negotiations, the more difficult second phase is set to begin. For this prisoner exchange to continue, Israeli troops would have to withdraw completely from Gaza and a permanent end to the war was agreed upon. The third phase involves the reconstruction of Gaza. The first phase has raised concerns about the ceasefire as well as the ability of both sides to permanently integrate into the other.
US commitment to the ceasefire agreement and its involvement in its implementation will be essential to ensure its full implementation. Washington is, after all, a guarantor with Qatar and Egypt. Unless US pressure on Israel is sustained, the fate of the deal will be uncertain. Trump’s post-inauguration remarks in this regard are not encouraging.
As many analysts have pointed out, they are more interested in extending the 2020 Abraham contracts. Trump now has his sights set on bringing Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords. He told the media after his inauguration that he was confident it would happen. When the war broke out in Gaza, Riyadh suspended negotiations.
He then made it clear that normalization with Israel, which Prince Mohammed bin Salman has accused of committing genocide, would only be possible if there was a credible path to a Palestinian state. Whether this is reason enough for Trump to resolve the Palestinian issue, he has never shown any concern. But there can be no lasting stability in the Middle East without an independent Palestinian state.
For now, peace in the Middle East hangs in the balance. Any Israeli attempt to annex even part of the West Bank would be a deal-breaker. So Israel could be backtracking on the terms of the ceasefire agreement. It may even result in a resumption of war.
The author is a former ambassador to the United States, United Kingdom and the United Nations.
Published in Dawn, January 27, 2025
