By pointing to it Open pin from ceasefireUkraine has given the Kremlin a difficult challenge at a time when the Russian army has the upper hand in the war: Should Moscow accept a war and give up hopes to gain new benefits, or should reject its offer and take this risk from being cautious. Recoction with Washington?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly denied the temporary break in hostility, saying it would allow only Ukraine and its Western allies to fill their weapons. He has insisted that Moscow wants a comprehensive agreement that will ensure a lasting settlement.
The Kremlin cautiously responded to the news of accepting the US -proposed war during a Tuesday talks in Saudi Arabia, saying it needed to know the details of the debate before expressing its view.
The careful approach reflects the putin’s threat reflects that this offer may be disturbed by the rejecting two Extreme efforts to normalize Russia-US relations.
Observers say that instead of rejecting Putin, it will probably be proposed to connect with some terms that will protect Moscow’s interests.
Why would the Kremlin oppose a ceasefire?
The Russian military held a battlefield move last year, which, with several parts of the 1,000 km (600 miles) frontline, gained slow but strong benefits. The tempo of Russian progress was intensified in the fall, when Moscow forces occupied most of the territory since the beginning of the war.
Ukraine has tried to take the initiative again A surprise thing In Russia’s Kursi region, which began in August, was trying to remove Moscow forces from its aggression in eastern Ukraine, and it benefits that peace talks could potentially be exchanged for Russian -occupied areas. However, the attack has removed the Ukrainian resources from the defense of the Donetsk region in the east and has failed to stop Russian progress there. Now the Ukrainian forces are on the way to losing their last rest of the tower head.
Moscow also destroyed the Ukrainian energy infrastructure with missiles and drone waves, eliminating most of its ability to create power.
Putin has repeatedly said that at a time, the enemies have to be temporarily stopped when the Russian forces will firmly hold the move, only allowing Ukraine troops to break and rest.
Putin has said, “As far as the situation is concerned, I want to emphasize that its purpose should not be aimed at a short reconciliation-a breakdown to continue the controversy-to-create, but a long-term peace is a long-term peace.”
Moscow has made it clear that it will not accept any army as a monitor of NATO members under the peace agreement.
What does Putin want?
Putin’s key goals remain when he launched a full -scale attack on February 24, 2022: Ukraine protected Russian language and culture to maintain NATO, cut off its army, and maintain the country in Moscow’s orbit. In the upper part of it, now he wants Kiev withdrawing his troops from all four regions occupied by Moscow but is not completely controlled.
Russian officials have also said that any potential peace deal should involve the removal of Russian assets in the West and lifting other US and European Union sanctions. The Trump administration has potentially provided sanctions on the table.
At the same time, Putin has repeatedly emphasized the need to “remove the root causes of the crisis”, which cited the demand for the withdrawal of NATO military construction near the Russian borders of the Kremlin, calling it a major threat to its security.
The Kremlin leader has argued that Ukrainian President Wolodiemeer Zelinsky, whose term expired last year, lacks legal status to sign a peace deal. Kiev says elections are impossible between war. US President Donald Trump has talked about the need for Ukraine to be elected in comments that echo Moscow’s theory.
What else can Moscow demand?
Some observers noted that instead of clearly rejecting the proposed war, Putin can offer many conditions.
Pro = Kremlin observer Sergey Markov suggested that Moscow could agree with a war if Ukrainian allies stopped supply to Kiev. America said that Recruitment of weapons delivery and intelligence sharing Saudi Arabia with Kiev after a war on Tuesday.
Markov wrote, “Russia” yes, but can say to the ceasefire offer, accepting a 30 -day war on the condition that Ukraine be banned from supplying weapons.
Another Moscow’s desire is a presidential election in Ukraine, which will be possible after the Ukraine martial law is lifted.
“Peace will allow Russia to use peaceful means to influence Ukrainian politics and to ensure friendly relations,” Markov said.
Alexei Naumov, a Moscow -based foreign policy expert, has also predicted that if Russia will likely accept a ceasefire offer if Russia will lead to elections in Ukraine.
“There is a contradiction in these negotiations and peace measures,” Namov said in a comment.
Sam Green, a Washington -based Center for European Policy Analysis, said it would be difficult to imagine that Putin had said “no” for a ceasefire proposal, adding that the Kremlin leader “has already achieved more success in some ways for the negotiation process … then he spoke about a short break in the battlefield.”
Green said Putin’s temporary statements against the war directly mean that Russia “is not willing to ceasefire without removing various things along the way.”
He added, “Such a ceasefire that can be interested in it is not clearly a ceasefire in which Ukraine or European people are interested, though it can be worse.”
Green said, “Moscow has every reason to believe that … if this process goes down anywhere, it will come to a place that is less and less on Russia’s terms, as long as the process is operating through Washington.”
