With Russia’s stretched forces in Ukraine and new US President Donald Trump Pressure on both sides To eliminate them Almost 3 years old warKiev and some of its European allies are discussing how to achieve this to ensure Ukraine’s future security.
Several ideas have been floated in the past, but the one currently gaining traction would deploy thousands of European troops to Ukraine. Not under the NATO flag.To act as a deterrent and rapid reaction force should Russia strike again – an apparent non-starter for Moscow.
Kiev has signaled a willingness to consider the terms of the ceasefire, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Security commitments from Kyiv’s allies This will be the key to a just peace and without them, it will only be a matter of time before Russia strikes again. Ukrainian officials say past deals with the Kremlin have been futile, pointing to the 2014 and 2015 deals signed by Russia. Illegal annexation of Crimea But then it was broken by its 2022 attack.
It remains to be seen whether Russia will want to end the war while its forces are there. Appears on the front footwhether they are Sustaining heavy damageor what terms the Kremlin might seek. But the rest of Europe is concerned about what Ukraine’s defeat means for its security.
“This is not just about Ukraine’s sovereignty. Because if Russia succeeds in this aggression, it will affect all of us for a very long time,” said British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Recent visit to Kyiv.
What ceasefire plans were discussed?
With Trump back in the White House and his threats to withdraw key U.S. support from Kiev unless Europe takes on more of the Ukraine burden, some European leaders have pledged their resolve. French President Emmanuel Macron He said creating security guarantees for Ukraine was a key responsibility for European countries, while Starmer said Britain would play a “full role” in any peace efforts.
Ukraine views NATO as the strongest deterrent to Russia, but Trump and some top European leaders have played down the idea of ​​a NATO-led peacekeeping presence in Ukraine.
Among the ideas that apparently failed to gain traction, one was that the allies would invest heavily in arming Ukraine to deter a future Russian invasion. That will almost certainly require major American support that might not be there under Trump.
Another idea, suggested by the Ukrainians, would be for Ukraine’s allies to defend it against massive Russian airstrikes, as supported by the United States. Defense of Israel against Iranian drone attack A potential downside of this approach would be that it would expose the latest Western defense technology to the Russian military for learning, experts said last year.
A third idea, which is gaining traction, is a macaron that was developed about a year ago and is based on the Korean armistice. It involves Western troops being deployed in Ukraine as a deterrent and a quick reaction.
Zelensky said that sufficient coalition troops would need to be deployed in Ukraine to overcome Russia’s manpower advantage.
Additionally, he said, Kiev would need a substantial flow of weapons, including Long range capabilities Capable of striking Moscow’s defense industrial complex, including some more than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) inside Russian territory. Trump opposes the idea..
Although Trump is pressuring Zelenskyi and Russian President Vladimir Putin to “make a deal,” European leaders are grappling with questions about how much military and financial aid they can theoretically offer, and if they can do so domestically. Will be willing to take political risks. Sending troops into Ukraine and possibly harming them.
Coalition forces in Ukraine?
Conversations can be pointless. Russia considers Ukraine to be part of its geopolitical hinterland and not the West. Putin believes he is winning the war and can outmaneuver Kiev, and he will not make any proposals that would send Western troops into Ukraine, current and former senior European and Russian officials told The Associated Press. told
“Putin will never say yes to this,” said Boris Bondariev, a former Russian diplomat, and European countries are unlikely to follow through if Putin makes it clear that this is a red line. Leave your role in the protest. After the war started.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Thursday that the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine would be “clearly unacceptable” and fuel “uncontrolled tensions.”
Nevertheless, an adviser to the Ukrainian government said that “technical discussions” were ongoing with the allies and speculated that Moscow could accept such a scenario depending on what concessions Ukraine was willing to make. . The official spoke to AP on condition of anonymity to speak freely about sensitive matters.
Zelensky indicated this week that he wanted foreign support and that Ukraine would need at least tens of thousands of coalition troops.
If European countries agree to send troops to Ukraine, it will send a strong signal to Russia that Europe intends to up the game, said Camille Grand, a former NATO official who is now at the European Council on Foreign Relations. are together
But even if European nations agree, there are questions about Europe’s military productivity, manpower and ability to fill potential gaps if U.S. aid is expected to drop under Trump. The US provides 40 percent of its military aid to Kiev.
Europe’s defense production is fragmented along national lines and underfunded, and there are questions about the ability of national governments to defend their own people, let alone the immense needs of Ukraine.
Peacekeepers or Tripwire?
There are many aspects of Macron’s proposal that need to be ironed out, including where coalition forces will be stationed in Ukraine, which countries will send troops and what capabilities they will have “because it is their ability to fight.” “, said Marie Dumoulin, Program Director for Wider Europe at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
In conversations with the AP, Ukrainian officials described such coalition troops as serving as a peacekeeping mission as well as a tripwire force, committed to retaliating in the event of a Russian attack. will be
“When people describe this as potential peace, there is a misrepresentation,” Dumoulin said. A senior Ukrainian official and two Western officials both agreed. The officials spoke freely about the sensitive discussions on condition of anonymity.
A conventional peacekeeping mission requires a UN vote, which Russia can easily veto. It would also not include a guarantee of retaliatory strikes in the event of a Russian attack – a key component of the type of security guarantee Kiev is seeking.
Although the move would be outside the NATO format, a Western official pointed out. NATO Multinational Battalions in the Baltic States – which, unlike Ukraine, is a member of the coalition – as a possible model. Others have pointed to the stabilization forces in Bosnia as an example.
The Ukrainian president said he had discussed the French proposal for foreign troops with Britain, France, Poland and the Baltic states, but the reality is that it would face stiff resistance from Putin. Nevertheless, opening negotiations with a proposal for a Western troop presence in Ukraine could leave European countries with room to maneuver with Putin, who would see such a proposal as “anyway NATO in Ukraine.” .
