LONDON — Across Europe, there are signs of a continent steeling itself for the unthinkable.
Lithuania plans to give Russia mines on its bridges, ready to detonate should Kremlin tanks attempt to cross. In the nearby Baltic, NATO ships are hunting Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” accused of cutting Andrea communications cables. And there are plans to build an elaborate missile defense system similar to Israel’s “Iron Dome” in the skies over Europe, but with the express purpose of shooting down rockets launched by Moscow.
European governments and citizens fear that an emboldened Kremlin could turn its military around after Ukraine. There is even widespread consternation that the new president — an isolationist — has suggested he could not defend America’s historic NATO allies if attacked by Russia.
While President Donald Trump has criticized Vladimir Putin this week, Trump has shown few signs of a meaningful shift from that position. On Thursday, he told Fox News that “Zelinsky is fighting a huge entity,” and that “she shouldn’t have done that, because we could have made a deal.”
He said little about NATO or Europe, only reiterating his latest demand for European allies to pay 5% of their GDP for defense – more than twice what NATO recommends – and on Lamented how much Washington has spent on supporting Ukraine’s defense compared to Brussels.
“NATO will pay a high price,” Trump said. “It’s funny because it affects them so much. There’s an ocean between us.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. European officials have repeatedly said that Putin is preparing for war with the West. For many this is already happening, with Think tank analysts, Governments and NATO Moscow itself has been accused of “hybrid warfare” attacks – from election interference to trying to crash planes with firebrands.
“The Europeans are taking this very seriously,” said retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the former commander of U.S. forces in Europe between 2014 and late 2017.
In particular, countries in Eastern Europe close to the Russian border “know this for a fact, because they live there.” “It’s only people who live far away from the bear in Western Europe or America, who say: ‘Come on, it’s not going to happen.’
A fundamental principle of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization NATO is that allies will defend any fellow member under attack. The only time the “Article 5” pledge was invoked was after 9/11, when Europe helped the United States patrol its skies in an act of solidarity. The basic message of this stipulation is that if a country attacks Europe, it will also bring war with Washington, and its intended audience is Russia.
But Trump has repeatedly suggested he will ignore Europe’s distress calls.
Many in Europe’s corridors of power agree that a restive continent has become too dependent on Washington’s protection. French President Emmanuel Macron, a longtime supporter of European self-reliance, said Monday that Trump’s second term should serve as a “wake-up call” for the continent..
In comments made at a defense conference on Wednesday, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas agreed with Trump’s assessment of European spending, saying that “Russia today, tomorrow and as long as we know little about our defence. is an existential threat to our security.”
Many of these critics, however, are nervous.
“Although every president has complained that European countries don’t do enough, there was never any question about American commitment,” Hodges said. “It causes a lot of trouble.”
In the short term, Trump and key members of his incoming administration have vowed to quickly end Russia’s war in Ukraine, which is impossible without major regional concessions from Kiev. Critics say effectively giving Russia a win would signal to the Kremlin that aggression has been rewarded and that the West has no appetite to intervene.
“Russia is preparing for war with the West,” German foreign intelligence chief Bruno Kahl said in a November speech.
For years, experts and government officials have accused Moscow of spreading disinformation, launching cyberattacks and using any other means necessary to interfere in elections in democratic countries.
Although Moscow denies this. Western officials and experts are united in agreeing that the campaign is only expanding.
Last month, Finnish authorities seized an oil tanker they suspected of having disconnected undersea power and internet cables. It was among the incidents that prompted NATO to launch the “Baltic Sentry” operation, stepping up maritime patrols.
Meanwhile, Western officials said Russia sent two fire extinguishers to DHL logistics hubs in Germany and Britain in July, as part of a wider sabotage campaign involving fires involving North American-bound aircraft. Responsible for sending.
In response, Europe has reversed decades of military downsizing, with most of its major powers now targeting NATO guidelines of 2% of GDP spent on defense. Spending began to rise in 2014 after Russia annexed Crimea, though Trump is widely credited with accelerating it.
On Wednesday, the European Union’s defense commissioner Andrey Kobelius announced that Lithuania plans to spend between 5% and 6% of its GDP on defense in the coming years.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has further focused minds.
In March, the European Union allocated 500 million euros (about $515 million) to double ammunition production to 2 million units per year. And now 22 countries have joined the European Sky Shield Initiative, a continent-wide missile defense system designed to protect against Russian attacks.
A spokesman for the bloc told NBC News in an email when asked if the continent was preparing for the worst-case scenario of war with Russia. “Simply put: we need to spend more to stop war. If we wait longer, it will cost us more.
Asked if the shift was influenced by Trump’s suggestion that he could not defend Europe as well as Putin, the spokesman referred only to the Russian president, whose war in Ukraine he said “Challenges an Order Based on International Rules.”
For its part, Ukraine’s reaction to President Trump’s election and inauguration has been reassuringly diplomatic. On Inauguration Day, the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said in a post on X that Trump was “always decisive” and that his second term was “long-term and only an opportunity to achieve peace.”
“The mentality has changed big time,” said Vitis Jurkonis, who heads the Lithuanian office of Freedom House, a pro-democracy international group, which is also the motivation.
“We need to make it very clear to the Kremlin that any attack against a NATO member will have costs and consequences,” said Jurkonis, who also teaches politics at Vilnius University in Lithuania. .
Particularly vulnerable are the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, a small peninsula between mainland Russia, the heavily militarized Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea.
After decades of occupation by the Soviet Union, these Western states are now only building the “Baltic Defense Line,” a border lined hundreds of miles long with anti-tank trenches and pillboxes. Lithuania has already bought a warehouse full of “dragons’ teeth” — concrete pyramids designed to stop tanks — and its bridges to the Russians in Kaliningrad, its Defense Ministry told NBC News. plans to end, its Defense Ministry told NBC News.
Lithuania recently said it would increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, the highest in NATO and proportionately higher than Washington’s 3.4%. That’s still less than Russia, where the Kremlin has effectively structured its economy on a war footing and committed at least 6.2% of its military to finance less than inflation.
Meanwhile in western Scandinavia, Norway has updated its emergency preparedness manual that it offers to all citizens, telling them how much water, food and water to stockpile in the event of “acts of war”. And other stuff. The 20-page document has historically focused on extreme weather and accidents, but its most recent version notes that “we live in an increasingly turbulent world” and warns people that “war In case of action, you may be informed that you should seek refuge.
Meanwhile, Church of Sweden authorities – at the direction of Sweden’s armed forces – have begun looking for additional cemetery space should such a conflict reach their shores. And Germany pledged around 100 million euros to restore the public sirens that were removed when the Iron Curtain fell.
And yet there are many observers who believe that Europe is not doing enough.
Western European countries such as Germany, France and Britain have committed only “a small percentage of growth in defense budgets,” said Keir Gillis, a leading defense analyst at London’s Chatham House think tank, which has seen a shift in investment in Eastern Europe. There is nothing like it.”
For Giles, “Who will defend Europe? An awake Russia and a sleeping continent,” the problem is that “more distant countries are still pretending that war is something that happens to other people.”
In addition, efforts are further complicated by the political situation. Europe’s mainstream parties have been challenged by populists, who often combine their staunch opposition to immigration with a softer — and sometimes even friendlier — stance toward Russia.
This is a problem for those who argue Russia’s war on Europe has already begun.
“Anyone who isn’t worried isn’t paying attention,” Gillis said.
