President Trump has vowed to end the fighting in Ukraine. Just how he can do it, it is unclear whether Russian President Vladimir V Putin believes he is winning. But in his own two -way way, Mr Trump has opened the possibility of some kind of ceasefire talks.
Analysts say that if an agreement was to be reached, Mr Trump is likely to accept Ukraine’s responsibility to keep it from Europe and reduce US affiliation.
But an important question remains: How to save Ukraine is saved and prevent Mr Putin from resuming the war, even for many years from now on?
The possibility of a deal has intensified the debate on so -called European shoes on earth to maintain peace, monitor ceasefire and to prevent Russia from future aggression. The question is, whose shoes, and how many, and what Mr. Putin will ever be.
This is a title that is to be the focus of discussion at the annual Munich Security Conference this week, with Vice President JD Venice and Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Marco Rubio.
Some European countries, including the Baltics nations, as well as France and the United Kingdom, have increased the possibility of incorporating their own troops into a force in Ukraine. Senior German officials have termed the idea premature.
The decline in NATO membership for Ukraine, which is unlikely for many years, the idea of having a large number of European troops from NATO countries seems careless for many officials and analysts.
Without a clear US involvement in such operations – with US aerial cover, air defense and intelligence, both human and technical – European troops would be in serious danger of Russian investigations and even attacks.
Ukrainian President Wolodmeer Zelannsky has indicated that he is ready for serious things about the end of the war, unless his allies provide security guarantees, not just assurances.
In the absence of NATO membership, which they prefer, Mr. Zillsky has spoken of more than 200,000 foreign troops on the ground in Ukraine. But it is three times higher than the size of the entire British army and is considered impossible by analysts.
A senior European official said that the continent does not have 200,000 troops to offer, and that any shoes on earth should get US support, especially the world’s second largest nuclear power, Russia To face. If not, they will permanently weaken the Russian efforts to disrupt the political and military credibility of the alliance.
Even a small number of European troops, such as 40,000, would have a difficult goal for a continent to slow down economic growth, shortage of squad and increase military spending for their protection. And it may not be enough to provide a realistic obstacle against Russia.
“A real obstacle force requires more than 100,000 troops assigned to the mission,” said Lawrence Friedman, Emirates Professor of War Studies at Kings College London.
The threat would be the German Institute for International and Security Affairs Defense Claudia Major’s policy, known as “Prayer on Bloph End”.
He wrote in A, “The supply of very few soldiers, or tripwire forces without reinforcement, is like a blurring that can invite Russia to test water, and NATO states can rarely cope with it. “ The recent paper With the German Lieutenant Colonel, Aldo Kleman, about keeping Ukraine’s ceasefire.
That is why Poland, which is deeply involved in neighboring Ukraine and its security, has rejected such a power so far.
“Poland understands that he needs to be included in any proposal, so he wants to see what Trump wants to do,” said Alexandra de Hop Sheffer, Acting Director of the German Martial Fund. “It wants Trump’s guarantee that US security helps to help European residents in the front line.”
He said, but this is not clear at all. “Trump will make this agreement and look for the Nobel Prize and then expect the Europeans to pay and implement it,” he said.
Even though former British ambassador to Russia Anthony Brenton said, “The willingness to be ready to do some useful things without Americans” without the Americans, it would be important to make sure that when the talks take place, the European desk would be seated. Is
The objectives of Mr Putin have not changed: Ukraine subordinate to Russia, expanding NATO and decreasing its troops, to create a new buffer zone between the Western alliance and the Russian zone considered.
Nor is it likely that Russia will agree on any agreement for the deployment of NATO or NATO country forces in Ukraine in any case, even if it is clearly available to train Ukraine troops. The Russian Foreign Ministry has already said that NATO troops in Ukraine will be “clearly unacceptable” and skilled.
Mr Fredman described the three potential models – peacekeeping, tripights and distortions – all of them.
A peaceful, unanimous ceasefire intends to strengthen and keep the fighters separate, are lightly armed to defend themselves, and often consist of soldiers from many countries under the United Nations. But seeing that the contact line in Ukraine is about 1, 1,300 km, or more than 800 miles, he said, “Many army” will be needed.
Prior to the 2022 invasion, there was an international surveillance mission for the organization for security and cooperation in Europe, with the Russian agreement, to monitor the celebration of the least ceasefire line in eastern Ukraine. Michael Bosverkov, who was a spokesman from 2014 to 16, said Michael Bosiyurki.
“The Russians did everything to stop the mission,” he said. He pretended to cooperate, limited access and hide various blasphemous activities. When things do not work as well, they closed it.
The Tripar Force is basically the same as NATO has been deployed to eight member countries near Russia. There are not so many troops to stop the attack or to see the provocative through Moscow, but this concept works only when there is a clear, integral link between the soldiers on the ground and when the wire is tripped. Make a great reinforcement.
But there are always doubts about the absolute nature of this guarantee. And the invading force will achieve an important area before any reinforcement comes, which is why NATO is the same. Increased in size One of the new aggressive Russia’s trip wire forces from the battalion to the brigade level to increase the barrier against Russia.
The third type, a barrier force, is the most trusted so far, but it needs to be very large and well equipped, and will require up to 150,000 well -equipped soldiers, as well as air defense, Important promises of intelligence and weapons-and American. Europe is lacking with strategic capacities, from air transport to missile defense from air transport to satellite.
Mr Fredman said, but it would be difficult to imagine that Russia will be satisfied with any such force for the same reasons as Mr. Zillsky wants.
So the best response to the nearby “Porkpine” model after a potential ceasefire may be some version of the model: the Ukrainian army, including a lot of weapons, resources and training-including Western forces-agree to re-try. However, such a commitment will have to be for a long period of time.
But First, Ukraine will have to stop Russia’s slow progress in the East and Mr Putin should be convinced to end the war with further damage and economic pressure to end the war. How to do this for Mr. Trump if he succeeds in ending the murder, it will be an important test, as he promises to do.
