Behind the Colombia Blowup: Mapping Trump’s Rapid-Escalation Tactics

Finally, President Trump’s first heads of conflict with a close allies in Latin America took only 12 hours, a blow to reject Colombia’s US military flights to return to illegal immigrants, Mr. Trump Full retreat from the target of threats.

This competition was not much. Colombia depends on the United States for more than a quarter of its exports. And while the details of this dispute will probably be forgotten quickly, the rapid threat of crushing tariffs by Mr Trump, and by surrendering to President Gostao Petro, is likely to encourage Mr Trump because he Consider to use. Of the same weapon against new goals.

There is little concern about who is in his mind: Denmark, whose prime minister told him that Greenland was not sold about two weeks ago during a hot, immeasurable conversation, and Panama, where Foreign Secretary Marco will land in Rubio. A few days to control the Panama Canal, the United States – the country that built it, 120 years ago.

Welcome to the age of Fred Campa, president of the Washington think tank, president of the Atlantic Council, which features a period of “more commercial, low -free trade and more powerful fights”.

There were three elements of Sunday’s diplomatic defeat with Colombia. But it was also educating how the foreign policy decision was made in the White House: there were no policy papers to weigh options, or the situation room meetings, or tension with a coalition. Talk about a calm mission to eliminate. The United States needs a variety of problems. How will this controversy about returning Colombian residents, because they were illegally in the United States, will be resolved in a general house, whether President Democrat or Republican.

In this case, there was probably no need for internal debate: Colombia China, Russia, or even North Korea and Iran, all countries that have ways to return to the United States or its interests. So it was an easy target-and a relatively cost-free space for Mr Trump to make a point about how they imagine the use of American power.

There was no such action in this case – and there was no time for such a process. With an angry post by Mr Petro, it was first revealed on social media, which announced that it would not allow the United States to land in military aircraft in his country, which are returning to Colombian. Mr Petro wrote, “I can’t live in a country that I don’t want to do in a country that I don’t want,” but if that country sends them back, it should be with dignity and respect for them and our country – “

Mr Trump shot the truth social – where he makes announcements before the White House Press Office (which cites the true social positions) before being released. The crushed he has now vowed to impose 25 % taxes on Colombia exports, which will clearly affect crude oil, coal and coffee industries. Mr Trump said that if Mr Petro did not lose the issue within a week, the prices would be doubled. For good measure, he called the Colombian president a “socialist”, which Mr Petro will be freely recognized.

What happened after that was interesting: Mr Petro briefly fought, announced his own rates on US imports and accused Mr Trump of trying to defeat his democratically elected government. Mr Petro wrote, “You don’t like our freedom.” “I don’t agree with white slaves.”

Of course there was a lot of history. One hundred and twenty -two years ago, the United States supported the Panamani Revolution against Colombia, knowing that it would intensify the canal construction. This is an era that Mr Trump talks about Westley.

Perhaps, Mr Petro looked at his possibility of coming to the upper part of the dispute and decided that it was zero. And he quickly decided that the best way was to get out of Mr Trump’s way. His Foreign Ministry announced that military flights could resume. There were more words to demand that passengers be treated with dignity, but clearly it was not viable. The United States suspended the tariff increase before they were, and Mr Rubio said visa sanctions on Colombia leadership would remain until the aircraft really arrived.

So when the day was over, it didn’t change much. Mr Petro made some flights, Mr Trump had threatened retaliation, Mr Petro was linked, and the stagnation was resumed on a large scale.

But this, the Trump administration’s attempt to detect the next movements, there were many indicators in the shock where matters could be headed.

Start with Denmark, the Prime Minister, Matt Frederickson, had a great, aggressive conversation just five days before the inauguration with Mr Trump. Hearing his threat that he could use military or economic repression to get his way on the Greenland and the Panama Canal, he opened up with ideas that his current military presence in the United States Greenland. How can you grow Help it to benefit from a lot of mineral resources. Mr Trump was not interested in cooperating. He wanted control, perhaps ownership, and was happy to encourage a movement in Greenland to get freedom from Denmark to get there.

It was a significant exchange. Denmark, however, is a NATO ally, and last month, Mr Trump has talked about all elements of US power – economic and military use so that he can reach the goal of force him to surrender. If there was ever an example of how Mr Trump was not interested in maintaining the “rules -based order” after World War II and replaced superpower politics, it was.

The head of the Eurasia Group Consultancy, Ian Bremer, wrote Monday morning, “Denmark” was desperate to talk to Americans about rights, resources development, Arctic Security Coordination and the Trump administration’s desire. “” “Now it is more likely that the Greenland will vote for independence in the upcoming referendum, and will make its own security agreement with the Americans, which will critically harm US relations with Denmark and with, Nordic Block. “

And then Panama is ready to receive Mr. Rubio. Generally, the first visit of the Secretary of State is looking forward to confirming the alliance and years of cooperation. Mr Rubio’s arrival will probably include some of it – and it is demanded that the Panama Canal contract be terminated and that arrangement was in 1903 in the Theodore Roosevelt’s mind: American control.

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