This is the most amazing time of the year, as NCAA Men’s Basketball TournamentMost people are known as “march madness”, starting this week.
After expanding 64 teams in 1985, the 86th edition of the tournament will be and 40th. Over the years, Fox Sports Research has taken a deep dive to find the first round and tournament batting trends.
We separated how the teams performed against the Spread (ATS) and the straight up (SU) to provide you with information needed to make some successful wages in the first week.
Let’s sink.
Under Dugs have a slight edge against the spread (ATS) in the period of 64
If it seems that in recent years, the underworks have performed well, then the reason is that they have – especially from a gambling point of view. Since 2015, they have increased to 149-133-3 ATS (52.8 %). Of these underdugs, Eighty actually won his own sports (SU), which is important in considering the number of middle -quarters and small -scale programs.
Below, we have outlined how Underworks have historically performed after the tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985:
- In the era of U-Dog 64, there are 610-595-25 ATS (50.6 %) and 311-919 SU (25.3 %).
- Double-digit Undergus 64 have 244-243-7 ATS (50.1 %) and 38-456 SUs (7.7 %).
- Currently, 20+ points 64 features Alabama (-22.5) vs Robert Morris, Houston (-28.5) vs. Save Edwards Well, Oberon (-32.5) vs. Albama State, Duke (-31.5) vs Mount Saint Mary, and Florida (-28.5) vs. 28.5) vs. 28.5).
- The teams that have 20+ points in 64 rounds are 91-85-3 ATS (51.7 %) and 4-175 SU (2.2 %).
- The teams that have 30+ points in the 64 round are 9-14 ATS (39.1 %) and 0-23 SUs.
64 round -the -seed vs badge match -up
Expanding a little further in the first phase, here is a defect of some interesting trends with double -digit seeds. You may be surprised how successful the lower seeds have been in recent years:
- Since spreading 64 teams in this field in 1985, a 12 seed has won the first round of the first round.
- Of the last 16 tournaments, 12, at least 13 seeds have defeated No. 4 seeds.
- In six of the last 12 tournaments, the number 14 seeds defeated number 3 seed. However, only two number 14 seeds have beaten the number 3 seed in the last five tournaments (2021) Abelin Christian Beat Texas; 2024 Auckland defeated Kentucky).
- Six of the last 12 NCAA tournament, 15 seeds defeated 2 seeds, but no one won last year.
- The double digit seeds are 528-541-22 ATS (49.4 %) and 245-846 SU (22.5 %), which has been in 64 since 1985.VCU When the game in 2021 proceeded due to the problems of Oregon Coid 19.
- Eliminates Origon.VCU When the game in 2021 proceeded due to the problems of Oregon Coid 19.
That is being said, it will not to point out some of the glaring losing streaks that many of the Small Conferences Hold, as these are the schools that it is usually obtain these doble-digit seeds.
- The horizon league schools have 1-11 in the 64 rounds since 2012, with the Lone Horizon League team in this year’s tournament, with the lonely win against Kentucky against Kentucky, with the lonely win from Okland, the number 2 seed Alabama in the eastern region.
- In this year’s tournament, the Lone Horizon League team, the 15th seeded Robert Morris, faces the number 2 seed Alabama in the eastern region.
- The Big Sky School 64 is 3-35 in every round round, with Montana’s last win in 2006, Montana will be seen to win once again, as he is the Lone Big Sky School in the tournament this year.
- Montana once to win. They will be seen, as they are the Big Sky School alone in the tournament this year. And it will face three seeds Wisconsin.
- The colonial Athletic School has been 0-11 in the round of 64 since 2013, the last win was in the VCU (now in the Atlantic 10) in 2012. The 14th seeded UNC Vilmington Sea Hawks is the only colonial athletic team in the sector this year, facing the third seed Texas Tech.
- The 14th seeded UNC Vilmington C Hawks is the only colonial athletic team in the sector this year, facing the third seed Texas Tech.
- The Big South School is 1-28 in the 64 round, with a lonely win from Wanthup in 2007. In this year’s tournament, the Lone Big South School is 13th seed high point, which is on 4 seeds.
- In this year’s tournament, the Lone Big South School is 13th Seeded High Point, which is in 4 seeds.
Bet on these coaches that to cover in 64 rounds
It can be argued that coaching in college basketball is more important than any other sport, and this idea is more than more in the tournament. This year’s Tourney has six coaches that are included in the cover rate for 64 sports rounds (at least 10 sports rounds).
- Matt Painter: 12-4 ATS (75 %) in the 64 round, tied up for the best time of any coach (Rick Major 64 had 9-3 ATS). No. 4 Prado won at the high point, losing the title game last year after losing another run in Tourney.
- Dana Ultman: The fourth best of any coach, 9-4-2 ATS (69.2 %) in 64 days. No. 5 Oregon No. 12 Liberty will face 7.5 points as a favorite, which will be presented by the ninth duck tournament.
- Bill Self: 14-9-1 ATS (60.9 %) 64, 14th every time. The number 7 J. Hawks will take the 10th seeded Arkansas as a 5.5 -point favorite, despite losing three of its last five games.
- Scott Drew, Greg McDermut: Both 64 rounds have 7-5 ATS (58.3 %), which is equal to the 15th best in all coaches. Drew will lead the Beller as a one -point under -dugs against the Mississippi State, while McDerrot will lead Creyon against Louis Will as a 2.5 -point undergour. These two match -ups are number 8 vs. 9 games.
- Tom Ezo: 14-11 ATS (56 %) in the 64 round, the 19th best in all coaches. Under Spartan Izzo, it is in its 27th NCAA tournament, tied to the second long series of NCAA history. He is a favorite of two seeds and 17.5 points against 15 seed brights.
No. 1 seeds in the period of 64 and dominated in the title game
While we have focused on the period of 64, we also wanted to give you an overview of what features the national champions show.
Since the beginning of the sowing in 1979, the seeds of 27 No.1 have won the 27th National Championship, which is mostly in any seed. The other seeds have been mixed for only 18 titles. This means that from 1979, 60 % of the national champions were the top seeds. In fact, out of the last seven national titles won and 13 of the last 17 champions were No.1 seeds.
In the era of 64, they are almost perfect, which has been going to 154-2 SU (98.7 %) and 81-73-2 ATS (52.6 %) since 1985. Only 16 seeds who beat the top seed have done UMBC, which ended Virginia in the 2018 tournament, and reduced the Fairley Dickinson team in 2023.
Other remarkable trends
- Since the first four were introduced in 2011, a team that has won the first four has made 32 of these 13 tournaments in the round of 32. It includes two teams, the last four (2021 VCUs, 2024 UCLA).
- Gonazaga 19-11 ATS (63.3 %) and 16-14 SU (53.3 %) while playing as 5 or even worse in the tournament (enters the tournament as ziggus number 8 seed); He has also made 16 in the North Carolina’s four -time all -time record organized by the UCLA, and he has also made 16 in the nine consecutive tournament.
- Rick Barnes appears in its 29th NCAA tournament. In the last 28, their teams lost 19 times (64 rounds or 32 rounds) at the end of the first week.
- The NCAA tournament as Dan Herley Head Coach has 15-3 ATS (83.3 %) and 14-4 SU (77.8 %). This is the highest core rate of any coach since 1985 (at least 15 game coaches).
- Since 1985, a double -digit seed has made a sweet 16 in all of the two NCAA tournaments (1995, 2007).
- No team in the west of the state of Texas won the NCAA tournament since 1997, when Arizona received the award this year.
Canopom trends
Canopom has become one of the most respected analytics tools in college basketball since its inception. The site takes care of different measurements to measure the aggressive and defense capabilities of each Division I basketball team. Given the pre -tournament canopom data, there are some interesting trends.
First, 22 of the last 23 national champions are included in the top 21 of the aggressive performance (2014 Yukan Loan discount). Of the last 23 national champions, twenty are among the top 31 of defensive performance (2009 North Carolina, 2015 Duke, 2021 Beller).
Therefore, using the 2024 pre-tournament canopom rankings, the following are the eight teams that are fitting in the Bill of Bill 21 in the Top 21 of the Crime and the Top 31 in Defense-with the difficulties provided by the Sports Book (March 20).
Duke: +320 title to win (bet on $ 10 to win $ 42)
Florida: +380 to win the title ($ 48 to win $ 10)
Ibran: +400 title to win ($ 50 to win $ 10)
Houston: +600 to win the title ($ 70 to win $ 10)
Tennessee: +2200 to win the title ($ 230 to win $ 10)
Alabama: +2200 to win the title ($ 10 to win $ 230)
Iowa State: +4500 to win the title (bet on $ 10 to win $ 460)
Gonzaga: 2000 to win the title ($ 10 to win $ 510)
Wisconsin.: +6000 to win the title ($ 610 to win $ 10)
Once again, this is not a stringent move, as teams can be hot – like many teams mentioned in the aforementioned bracket. But this is a good indicator in which teams may be able to title bat before the tournament begins.
Duke is the current favorite to win (+320), but it is worth noting that 10 of the last 11 title winners had more problems in entering the tournament (last year’s Ukin team was +350 before the first round). And before that, Kentucky was the last team in 2012, which had less difficulties, which closed at +185 before its first game.
It is also worth noting that all 23 national champions were included in the top 25 of the overall adjustment performance in Canopom Era (since 2001). All nine teams above the top 13 of this year’s pre -tournament canopom data.
So who are you betting?
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